FutureSearch, an AI forecasting platform developed by a team from Metaculus, has exited beta, having run over 10,000 high-effort forecasts from thousands of beta users. The platform now supports decis…
Eli Lifland, a researcher at the AI Futures Project, discussed the organization's scenario AI 2027 on the AXRP podcast, stating that the project aims to provide a detailed, plausible narrative of AI d…
In a retrospective essay, AI forecaster and author of the 2021 science fiction story 'Bayeswatch' reflects on how the AI landscape has changed, noting that AI now writes all of his software at 10× to …
The authors of AI 2027 have released a more optimistic narrative, Plan A, which outlines a global agreement to slow AI progress and hand control to aligned AIs by 2040. The plan includes a near-total …
George Hotz's blog post 'AI 2040 and the Cult of Intelligence' argues against hard takeoff scenarios for AI, claiming intelligence is not the end-all and that machines are subject to physical and supp…
The AI Futures Project's 'AI 2040: Plan A' proposes a normative scenario for managing powerful AIs, but lacks detail on international dispute resolution procedures, according to a critic. The plan inc…
Frontier AI models can rediscover 61.25% of known legal loopholes and generate new ones, according to a study by Wei Liu et al. in 'Large Language Models Hack Rewards, and Society,' raising concerns t…
A critical review of AI 2027 claims that the report misrepresents scientific evidence, specifically regarding AI reasoning and AI training AI. The reviewer argues that a referenced paper on reinforcem…
The AI Futures Project released a detailed vision for international AI regulation centered on total research transparency, arguing that open access to all AI research would simplify governance and enf…
AI safety forecasts are undermined by untestable assumptions about the nature of future AI agents, such as whether they will be humans, institutions, or hybrid collectives. These ontological commitmen…
A new policy proposal called Plan A urges an international deal to delay superintelligence until 2040, enforce total research transparency, and allow multiple companies globally to scale safely togeth…
Daniel Kokotajlo and the AI Futures Project released Plan A, a policy roadmap for navigating the AI transition, proposing a joint US-China regulatory regime to prevent a poorly-controlled intelligence…
The AI 2027 Tracker, a project tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario, reports that several key milestones have been confirmed or are emerging, including the completion of a frontier model tra…
A speculative fiction piece titled 'Europe 2031' has gone viral among AI researchers and European policymakers, depicting a future where Europe fails to achieve AI independence and suffers economic co…
Henry Farell argued at a Blavatnik School of Government talk that AI should be understood as a "lossy information aggregation tool," comparing it to historical systems like state bureaucracies and mar…
AI researcher Nathan Witkin has challenged the validity of METR's widely-cited Long Tasks benchmark, arguing its methodology is fundamentally flawed despite its status as a leading indicator of AI cap…