Forethought researcher Tom Davidson's model of a software intelligence explosion, revised in a new Forethought article, finds it less likely that 10 or more years of total AI progress could fit into 1…
Formation Research, an AI safety research organization, is focusing on empirical secret loyalties research to address lock-in risks, prompted by Forethought's AI-enabled coups paper. The organization …
A new paper, 'The Bounded Parallelizability of R&D: Theory and Application to AI' by Philip Trammell, and an Epoch blog post argue that standard models of AI-driven technological singularity overlook …
The authors of AI 2040: Plan A rebut a criticism by Séb Krier, arguing that his characterization misrepresents their proposal and lacks substantive argumentation. They assert that Plan A is highly ite…
The AI Futures Project released AI 2040: Plan A and is calling for additional research into competing strategies for navigating the intelligence explosion, including indefinite halts, domestic-first r…
A new model estimates that a 10x reduction in R&D compute for an AGI company would slow AI progress by about 6x in the median case, with an 80% confidence interval of 3.5x to 8x. The model accounts fo…