A synthesis of 11 Metaculus analyses from October 2024 to May 2026 finds that human expert forecasters still outperform AI bots in live forecasting tournaments, though bots are improving. Key factors …
Metaculus, The Unjournal, and Sentient Futures have launched the Animal Futures Tournament, a forecasting competition with 16 questions on animal welfare topics including corporate commitments, altern…
An AI forecaster predicts the U.S. government will force Anthropic to restrict Claude Fable to non-Americans, setting a major precedent for AI regulation. The analysis, using a proprietary world-model…
Large language models are beginning to outperform human forecasters, with AI expected to rival superforecasters on most questions by next year. Despite decades of proven ability to produce well-calibr…
A new analysis of AGI forecasts from leading researchers shows that timeline predictions have shifted in sync with whichever AI lab is currently dominant. From 2023 to 2025, most forecasters moved the…