The two companies that literally make AI possible are about to reveal whether the hype machine is still running hot or starting to sputter.
ASML reports Q2 2026 earnings on July 15, with TSMC following on July 16. Together, these two firms represent the foundational infrastructure layer of the entire AI boom. One makes the machines that make the chips. The other makes the chips themselves.
TSMC posted NT$442.68 billion in June revenue, a 68% increase year-over-year and a 6.2% bump month-over-month. For the first half of 2026, total revenue hit NT$2.404 trillion, reflecting 35.6% annual growth. TSMC has previously projected more than 30% full-year 2026 revenue growth in US dollar terms, driven almost entirely by AI-related silicon demand.
ASML raised its 2026 sales guidance to a range of 36 billion to 40 billion euros. As the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the equipment needed to etch transistors at the most advanced semiconductor nodes, ASML occupies a monopoly position. Every cutting-edge chip that TSMC produces requires ASML’s machines to exist.
Around June 23, a broader tech selloff dragged semiconductor names lower. ASML and TSMC both saw declines of roughly 5% to 7.5%, while Nvidia took a similar hit.
Why crypto investors should pay attention #
Bitcoin miners have increasingly pivoted toward AI and high-performance computing as a revenue diversification strategy. Companies like Hut 8 and Core Scientific have repositioned their data center capacity to serve AI workloads alongside, or instead of, crypto mining. TSMC’s guidance on AI chip demand directly informs the economics of that pivot.
What to watch in the actual reports #
For ASML, the key metric is bookings. New orders for EUV machines serve as a leading indicator for chip production 12 to 18 months out. TSMC has been investing heavily in advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS, which bundles multiple chip components together for AI processors. How efficiently TSMC converts revenue growth into profit growth will reveal whether the AI boom is genuinely lucrative or just revenue-inflating.
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