Bitcoin has finally plunged to $58,000. This will go down as one of my greatest forecasts ever, if not the greatest. I was the only person, back in 2025 when it was at >$100,000, who predicted there would be no BTC reserve, whilst also recommending shorting Bitcoin a a hedge against tech stocks. The latest catalyst for the selling is a possible MicroStrategy-led debt spiral. Zooming out gives a perspective of how bad things have gotten:
As I correctly predicted, there is not going to be any help from Trump despite his own personal crypto investments and those of his sons rapidly going to zero. No bailouts or reassuring words to help MicroStrategy, whose CEO Michael Saylor was a major Trump backer, or Bitcoin. Trump’s cost basis is zero, compared to suckers who bought at the top in 2025.
I remember getting into debates online in late 2024 after he won arguing that he would not help Bitcoin despite being called a “crypto president” by the media. The assumption was Trump would aggressively promote Bitcoin in office. People had been conditioned to think that because Trump cares about money and that politics is cynical, that he would “sell out” the presidency to promote crypto as “the most cynical outcome”. Being as high IQ that I am, I was one step ahead: The maximally cynical outcome is that his donors get nothing, and he pockets the money without keeping his end of the deal. Then to add to the cynicism, tech and AI who donated nothing get bailouts and other help.
So that is what I predicted, and was right. I profited accordingly by shorting Bitcoin and buying tech, such as semiconductor stocks, more than doubling my “net worth” since 2025 by doing this. (It would have been more had I ben more aggressive on semiconductors.) All mentioned on blog.
Kitten wants everyone to stop talking about the reflecting pool:
Everything I know about the reflecting pool was learned against my will and I resent all of you immensely for having forced it upon me
[https://t.co/nDc86WTC9u]— Kitten 🐈 (@kitten_beloved)
[June 23, 2026]
It’s the same pattern as the ballroom. It’s a low stakes issue that rallies his base and distracts media attention from bigger issues. This is extremely predictable if you know anything about Trump and are paying attention. Trump is obsessed with symbolic wins or gestures, and less about policy. The White House UFC fight was a perfect example of this. It was a huge spectacle that his supporters ate up, and conversely equally repulsive to the Left. With a forever-divided House, there are not going to be any big legislative wins on the horizon. The Iran thing is not going to be resolved either. Hence, this.
This is hardly new. Bill Clinton championed low-stakes issues, too (e.g. the 1996 controversy over school uniforms, which was once a big deal and endorsed by Clinton). And in the 80’s a pressing issue was vulgar lyrics in music. Nowadays does anyone wear uniforms? You never hear about it anymore. Or “don’t ask, don’t tell”. With young people desensitized to violence and everything online, no one cares about vulgar lyrics anymore either.
Similar to his first term, Trump was really strong out of the gate with appointments, DOGE, tariffs, and various executive orders. But also like his first term, things have seemingly fizzled out after the first year. Instead of being bogged down by impeachment hearings and Covid, it’s foreign intervention, courts, and congress. For all practical purposes the Trump presidency is over. The remaining 2.5 years will be spent fixing the mess that was created in Iran, and dealing with the Supreme Court and congress, various appointments, and preparing the transition for his successor, that presumably being Vance or Rubio.
Interesting tweet:
The actual joke here is not that liberals lack a theory of mind for anyone on the right (they do) while the average person on the right has one for liberals (they do, it's mistaken)
It's that lib lack a theory of mind for themselves
Their views of themselves and why they…
[https://t.co/eHycccCPo4][pic.twitter.com/p9Afdoy7QI]— Covfefe Anon (@CovfefeAnon)
[June 14, 2026]
I have never about into this notion that people are “irrational” or that one party is more irrational than the other. In hindsight, certain behavior may appear irrational (e.g. buying stocks at the top of a bubble), but in the moment it’s the “right” thing to do with the information at hand and circumstances. You don’t know how big a bubble can eventually be inflated, so buying an already overinflated market is not irrational if you expect it to become even more inflated, and this is supported by empirical evidence of it inflating.
Both sides are guided by what they hold as rational beliefs. No one knowingly enters into beliefs that they also believe are irrational. There is always some reason or evidence underlying it. Moreover, both sides are guided by appeals to authority. For the Left, it’s “trust the science” or “trust Biden”. For the Right, it’s “trust Trump” or whoever. Human behavior is much more of an invariant quality compared to object-level issues.
Different ideologies seek different outcomes, and political actors work to bring those about. Mamdani or Trump’s actions are not irrational when viewed through the lens of seeking to attain some outcome.
From Scott, “My AI Opinions” I am an “AI realist” in that I believe Ai will have a net-positive effect on society and that the technology is here to stay, but it will not lead to any of these oft-touted far-reaching scenarios (e.g. post-scarcity, the destruction of humanity, AI becoming “aware” and turning on humans, mass unemployment, etc.).
He says “Define AGI as AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs.” This is already true; we don’t need to wait until 2027 or whenever. An AI knows more about the body than any doctor. Also, this prediction cannot be quantified, unlike BLS employment data, which are much more objective and measurable. These forecasts are useless and amount to no more than handwaving if they cannot be precisely measured.
But, of course, an AI cannot do surgery. Also, a considerable amount of human labor is required dealing with edge cases, where AI cannot help. AI knows everything already, but it cannot do everything. This is why the AI job loss predictions keep being wrong. Millions of people need help with taxes, retirement planning, social security, DMV, Medicare and other complexities of life.
This means many hours on the phone, emails exchanged, and office visits to resolve unforeseen issues that are unique to each person. Same for insurance. All of this complexity requires humans to sort out. America’s healthcare system is uniquely convoluted and bureaucratic, likened to Gordian knot between patients, doctors, hospitals, and insurers. Good luck having an AI sort it all out.