Oxford philosopher Toby Ord, in an interview on the 80,000 Hours Podcast, argued that frontier AI development faces fundamental conceptual bottlenecks that undermine the likelihood of immediate recurs…
A new analysis by Toby Ord, published on arXiv (arXiv:2505.05115), shows that AI agent success rates decay exponentially with task length, with a constant per-minute failure rate, giving each agent a …
A new interactive visual overview of the AI safety talent pipeline reveals significant "leaks" in the process of finding, training, and accelerating talented individuals to work on AI safety problems,…
Toby Ord analyzes the scaling properties of reinforcement learning in AI, distinguishing between RL-scaling (training compute) and inference-scaling (deployment compute). He finds that in OpenAI's o1 …