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Longitudinal Expert AI Panel

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18:45

2026-09-26

forecastingresearch.substack.com

ai-research

How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?

The Forecasting Research Institute published the first post in a series assessing how accurate expert and superforecaster predictions of AI progress have been since mid-2022. Across its studies, forec…

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Forecasting Research Institute 1 Josh Rosenberg 1 Matt Reynolds 1 Nadja Flechner 1 Zack Devlin-Foltz 1 Epoch Capabilities Index 1 Ajeya Cotra 1

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ai research 1 ai safety 1 artificial intelligence 1