JS Denain and Anson Ho argue that AI futurism debates overlook the difficulty of developing specific technologies like Dyson spheres or nanotech, focusing instead on AI capabilities. The authors call …
Ajeya Cotra announced her departure from Open Philanthropy after nearly nine years, describing a decade-long pattern of grand visions followed by disillusionment and self-criticism. Despite feeling sh…
Asterisk Magazine's 14th issue, titled 'Risk,' explores how humans quantify, mitigate, and cope with uncertainty through articles on AI timelines, prediction markets, conflict prevention, and financia…
Ajeya Cotra's 'train to crazy town' metaphor for Effective Altruist reasoning is revisited, with the author arguing that moral theories may not be meant to guide individuals directly. The piece advoca…
METR's Ajeya Cotra predicts self-sufficient AI—systems that can sustain and expand without human input—is likely within 10 years, while Understanding AI's Timothy B. Lee estimates a 10-20% chance with…