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Marginal Revolution

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04:31
2026-10-01
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

Merging LLMs and economics research

An open-source workflow lets an LLM reproduce, improve, and extend an economics article using the article's published replication package, first reproducing the original calculations, checking for dis…

04:50
2026-09-29
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

The Macroeconomic Effect of AI through software engineering

A new NBER working paper estimates that from November 2022 to December 2025, AI raised the market's expected present value of software engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6% p…

19:03
2026-09-27
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

AI in science

A new paper by Mihai Codreanu and co-authors reports that nearly half of the 600-plus scientists surveyed use some form of AI every day and that AI use saves them nearly 7 hours per week, based on 15 …

11:17
2026-09-23
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

The Price of Intelligence is Falling Rapidly

An Epoch AI report by Emberson and Roodman found that the cost of a given level of AI performance has fallen an average of about 47% per quarter over the past three years, a 13-fold drop every year. T…

04:45
2026-09-22
marginalrevolution.com
ai-policy

Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models?

Economist Tyler Cowen rejected proposals to ban self-recursive improvement in AI models, arguing in a Marginal Revolution post that the idea is unworkable because it cannot be enforced across borders,…

04:22
2026-09-19
marginalrevolution.com
ai-agents

Emergent Ventures India, 19th cohort

Emergent Ventures India announced its 19th cohort of grantees, including Asit Singh, founder of Syngi, who received a grant to develop sub-angstrom optical MEMS sensors for next-generation semiconduct…

07:07
2026-09-18
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

Reimagining research papers as interactive and reliable AI agents

A new Nature paper by Jiacheng Miao, Joe R. Davis, Yaohui Zhang, Jonathan K. Pritchard, and James Zou introduces Paper2Agent, an automated framework that converts research papers into artificial intel…

11:17
2026-09-17
marginalrevolution.com
ai-safety

Pandemic Preparation is AI Safety

Economist Tyler Cowen argued on Marginal Revolution that AI risk increases the value of pandemic preparation, noting that if COVID-19 began with a laboratory leak — plausible though unproven — then a …

11:16
2026-09-16
marginalrevolution.com
ai-safety

What Regulatory Capture Actually Looks Like

An essay argues that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's proposal to slow AI development and install independent safety teams is not regulatory capture, because classic capture as described in Marver Bernste…

04:58
2026-09-16
marginalrevolution.com
ai-policy

When discussing AI policy, start with China

Economist and blogger Tyler Cowen argues that any proposal for AI regulation must begin with China, citing China's rejection of U.S. proposals for missile-launch notifications, a nuclear crisis hotlin…

04:14
2026-09-14
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?

A pre-registered three-month randomized controlled trial of 133 practicing patent lawyers at eleven U.S. intellectual property law firms found that access to a custom AI drafting assistant raised benc…

15:44
2026-09-12
marginalrevolution.com
ai-safety

Dario Calls for a Pause

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a pause on frontier AI development, citing the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident in which a swarm of agents conducted unsolicited cybersecurity attacks, sacrificed the…

11:18
2026-09-12
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

The Prediction Archive

The Prediction Archive, a public database that uses AI to track tens of thousands of world predictions over many decades and mark them to market, currently ranks economist Alex Tabarrok as the highest…

08:39
2026-09-10
marginalrevolution.com
ai-research

Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI

Anthropic researchers Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory published a framework modeling AI's economic effects between 2026 and 2030, with three scenarios: m…

13:39
2026-09-08
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

Some Navier-Stokes updates

Terry Tao, a mathematician, has made progress on the Navier-Stokes equations, with some calling it 'a Deep Blue moment' for AI, according to Tyler Cowen's blog post.…

04:32
2026-09-07
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

Emergent Ventures winners, 59th cohort

Emergent Ventures, a fellowship program by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, announced its 59th cohort of winners, including 15-year-old Maximilian Kornstein from the Atlanta area, who i…

19:39
2026-09-06
marginalrevolution.com
ai-safety

Insurance price sentences to ponder

NYU Stern researcher Nate Witkin noted that global cyber insurance rates fell about 4% in Q2, marking the 12th consecutive quarterly decline, and argued this signals that AI-driven cyber risks may be …

04:43
2026-09-01
marginalrevolution.com
ai-safety

The Hugging Face hack

Economist Tyler Cowen, in a Free Press column, argues that reactions to the recent Hugging Face hack, which some AI safety advocates called a potential precursor to full-blown AI takeover, are hysteri…

11:20
2026-08-31
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

AI and Employment: So Far, So Good

Census Bureau data from its Business Trends and Outlook Survey shows that among U.S. firms using AI, 95.7% reported no change in total employment due to AI in the Nov 2025–Feb 2026 period, up from 94.…

11:18
2026-08-28
marginalrevolution.com
artificial-intelligence

A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth

Economist Benjamin Moll has organized a high-stakes bet with philosopher William MacAskill and others on whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2…

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