OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged that he may have overestimated how quickly AI would become a mainstream part of the economy. Despite years of predictions that AI would rapidly transform businesses and everyday life, adoption has faced several obstacles, including high costs, concerns surrounding data centres and resistance to changing established ways of working. Altman now expects the transition to take longer than initially anticipated, with AI potentially needing more time to reach the level of widespread adoption seen with technologies such as search engines and smartphones.
People Are Slower to Change Than AI Is to Improve #
Sam Altman says he underestimated how much “inertia” exists in the economy. Even as AI tools become more capable, people and businesses tend to stick with familiar products, workflows and habits. He compared the transition to the early days of Netflix, when customers did not immediately abandon Blockbuster. According to Altman, changing behaviour is far more difficult than many people developing new technology realise, meaning the shift towards AI-driven work could happen more gradually than expected.
Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly
— Fireside Alpha (@firesidealpha) "I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away,…[https://t.co/5oNHTky7fK][pic.twitter.com/AIA5gpJwFB][August 23, 2026]
AI’s Capabilities Are Moving Faster Than Adoption #
Altman said he initially expected the arrival of GPT-4 in 2023 to trigger much faster disruption, particularly across software businesses. Instead, the gap between what AI can do and how people actually use it remains significant. He pointed out that even within his own environment, people continue switching between apps, checking email and manually copying and pasting information despite having access to increasingly sophisticated AI tools.
The AI Industry May Have Set Expectations Too High #
The OpenAI chief also acknowledged that the technology industry has not always communicated AI's impact effectively. Years of predictions about massive job losses, existential risks and rapid transformation may have made the public more anxious without clearly explaining the potential benefits. His comments come as OpenAI's reported second-quarter revenue reached $6.7 billion, up from $5.7 billion in the previous quarter, while its operating loss reportedly climbed to $12.3 billion. The slower adoption of AI could therefore also mean companies have to wait longer for the productivity and financial gains they expect from the technology.
Human Connection Could Become More Valuable #
Despite his belief that AI will continue advancing, Altman does not think humans will simply become irrelevant. He argues that technology may eventually outperform people at many tasks, but the desire for genuine human interaction is unlikely to disappear. As more experiences become automated and digital, physical and authentic interactions could become more meaningful. For OpenAI, the broader lesson is clear: AI's technical progress may be rapid, but changing how people and businesses actually work is a much slower process.
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