If the trend holds, you will be able to run a model with Fable 5 capabilities on your MacBook around may 2027. It took nine months for open source to catch up with Claude Opus 4.5: Qwen3.8-27B came out last week, has matching performance on coding benchmarks, and runs on a MacBook.
The rate at which open source models catch up to closed source is increasing: It took 33 months for open source to match GPT 3, and since open source has been catching up faster and faster.
If we expect the trend to hold, we could expect a Fable 5 like model in about 9-11 months (March to May next year). You would still need an expensive machine to run a model like this, but a ~$4,000 MacBook Pro with 64 GB of RAM would allow you to generate about 20–30 tokens per second, with no API bill, and nothing leaves your machine. (4000 $ doesn’t seem that crazy if I look at my Claude bill…)
BUT: now that Fable 5 is out, I don’t see myself using Opus 4.5 anymore - the Fable 5 release reset my expectations. At the same time I probably COULD use a less capable model for a lot of tasks. It’s just convenient to always use the most capable model if the budget allows for it.