https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/05/f35-lightning-ii-guide/ US invasion of Iran
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is set to make his inaugural visit to Israel on Wednesday, as reported by CNN, during a period marked by US military actions targeting Iran. The visit is expected to involve discussions on a $3 billion F-35 jet sale, reinforcing US-Israel defense ties. This development comes against the backdrop of ongoing US-led strikes on Iranian facilities as part of Operation Epic Fury, a response to heightened tensions following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While the visit does not explicitly indicate immediate escalation, it underscores the strategic alignment between the US and Israel amid persistent regional instability.
Key Takeaways #
- Hegseth’s visit to Israel suggests a sustained US commitment to bilateral defense cooperation, particularly through the potential F-35 sale.
- Market pricing appears to interpret the visit and ongoing strikes as consistent with scenarios that may increase tensions between the US and Iran.
- The market for a potential US invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 is currently priced at 13.5% YES, indicating some perceived risk of escalation.
What to Watch #
Observers should monitor any official statements from Hegseth or the Israeli government following the meeting, which could provide insights into future US-Israel defense strategies. Developments in US-Iran negotiations and any changes in military activity will be crucial in shaping market expectations. The situation remains fluid, and significant shifts in market pricing could occur if there are any new developments suggesting further escalation or de-escalation.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our