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Show HN: AI Model Benchmark for Crypto Price Predictions

A new public benchmark ranks 13 AI models on cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy, with OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at a 78.7% composite score and 73.8% average accuracy across eight coins including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The ranking system evaluates models on accuracy, hit rate, consistency, confidence calibration, and recency, drawing from over 10,000 verified prediction windows to determine which AI performs best at forecasting crypto market movements.

read3 min publishedMay 31, 2026

Dashboard Ranking uses verified model performance from the database. The score favors accuracy first, then hit rate, consistency, confidence calibration, and enough sample size to trust the result.

Best calibrated

moonshotai/kimi-k2.5 Verified predictions

10,885 Only completed prediction windows with accuracy scores are included.

Models compared

13 Grouped by model name across every tracked coin.

Best avg accuracy

73.8% Mean score from direction, range closeness, and range overlap.

Best recent form

78.5% Average accuracy over each model's latest 10 verified calls.

Accuracy

Primary quality score already recorded for each model.

Hit Rate

Share of predictions scoring at least 70%.

Consistency

Rewards models with lower accuracy variance.

Calibration

Checks whether confidence matches actual results.

Recency

Separates current form from older performance.

Rank Model Score Avg accuracy Recent Hit rate Consistency Conf gap Samples Coins Last verified
#1 openai/gpt-5.4High-confidence avg: 57.4% 78.7% 73.8% 67.6% 79.9% 80.3% -8.7% 1067 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 May 30, 06:07 PM
#2 minimax/minimax-m2.7High-confidence avg: 44.8% 71.7% 66.1% 69.7% 65.6% 75.7% -3.9% 195 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 Apr 26, 06:05 AM
#3 xiaomi/mimo-v2.5High-confidence avg: 46.2% 71.2% 66.4% 69.2% 60.3% 79.2% -2.7% 839 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 May 30, 06:07 PM
#4 xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-proHigh-confidence avg: 45.5% 71.0% 66.6% 78.5% 60.0% 79.3% -5.3% 815 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 May 30, 06:05 PM
#5 minimax/minimax-m2.5High-confidence avg: 50.8% 70.3% 65.3% 64.8% 62.2% 76.4% -6.8% 1025 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 May 30, 06:07 PM
#6 openai/gpt-5-miniHigh-confidence avg: 38.2% 68.0% 62.6% 49.0% 57.4% 77.3% -5.7% 1110 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 May 30, 12:04 PM
#7 qwen/qwen3.5-plus-20260420High-confidence avg: 51.5% 66.1% 61.6% 67.3% 48.5% 78.6% -3.6% 824 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 May 30, 06:07 PM
#8 moonshotai/kimi-k2.5High-confidence avg: 42.8% 64.4% 59.0% 66.1% 46.9% 75.9% -0.0% 1024 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 May 30, 06:05 PM
#9 z-ai/glm-5.1High-confidence avg: 44.4% 63.8% 59.0% 62.7% 44.3% 77.9% +2.5% 1114 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 May 30, 12:05 PM
#10 deepseek/deepseek-v4-flashHigh-confidence avg: 48.0% 63.7% 58.7% 64.9% 43.3% 78.5% -0.5% 834 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 May 30, 06:05 PM
#11 google/gemini-3-flash-previewHigh-confidence avg: 42.2% 62.5% 58.1% 55.9% 43.0% 78.1% +8.6% 1015 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 May 30, 12:03 PM
#12 z-ai/glm-5High-confidence avg: 42.8% 61.5% 54.7% 68.3% 52.8% 67.7% +9.1% 195 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 Apr 26, 06:05 AM
#13 deepseek/deepseek-v4-proHigh-confidence avg: 42.3% 58.0% 54.0% 65.5% 31.8% 79.4% +10.3% 828 ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 May 30, 06:05 PM
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