{"slug": "show-hn-ai-model-benchmark-for-crypto-price-predictions", "title": "Show HN: AI Model Benchmark for Crypto Price Predictions", "summary": "A new public benchmark ranks 13 AI models on cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy, with OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at a 78.7% composite score and 73.8% average accuracy across eight coins including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The ranking system evaluates models on accuracy, hit rate, consistency, confidence calibration, and recency, drawing from over 10,000 verified prediction windows to determine which AI performs best at forecasting crypto market movements.", "body_md": "[Dashboard](/)\n\n# Model Benchmark\n\nRanking uses verified model performance from the database. The score favors accuracy first, then hit rate, consistency, confidence calibration, and enough sample size to trust the result.\n\nBest calibrated\n\n**moonshotai/kimi-k2.5** Verified predictions\n\n**10,885** Only completed prediction windows with accuracy scores are included.\n\nModels compared\n\n**13** Grouped by model name across every tracked coin.\n\nBest avg accuracy\n\n**73.8%** Mean score from direction, range closeness, and range overlap.\n\nBest recent form\n\n**78.5%** Average accuracy over each model's latest 10 verified calls.\n\n**Accuracy**\n\nPrimary quality score already recorded for each model.\n\n**Hit Rate**\n\nShare of predictions scoring at least 70%.\n\n**Consistency**\n\nRewards models with lower accuracy variance.\n\n**Calibration**\n\nChecks whether confidence matches actual results.\n\n**Recency**\n\nSeparates current form from older performance.\n\n| Rank | Model | Score | Avg accuracy | Recent | Hit rate | Consistency | Conf gap | Samples | Coins | Last verified |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| #1 | openai/gpt-5.4High-confidence avg: 57.4% | 78.7% | 73.8% | 67.6% | 79.9% | 80.3% | -8.7% | 1067 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 06:07 PM |\n| #2 | minimax/minimax-m2.7High-confidence avg: 44.8% | 71.7% | 66.1% | 69.7% | 65.6% | 75.7% | -3.9% | 195 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | Apr 26, 06:05 AM |\n| #3 | xiaomi/mimo-v2.5High-confidence avg: 46.2% | 71.2% | 66.4% | 69.2% | 60.3% | 79.2% | -2.7% | 839 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:07 PM |\n| #4 | xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-proHigh-confidence avg: 45.5% | 71.0% | 66.6% | 78.5% | 60.0% | 79.3% | -5.3% | 815 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:05 PM |\n| #5 | minimax/minimax-m2.5High-confidence avg: 50.8% | 70.3% | 65.3% | 64.8% | 62.2% | 76.4% | -6.8% | 1025 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 06:07 PM |\n| #6 | openai/gpt-5-miniHigh-confidence avg: 38.2% | 68.0% | 62.6% | 49.0% | 57.4% | 77.3% | -5.7% | 1110 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 12:04 PM |\n| #7 | qwen/qwen3.5-plus-20260420High-confidence avg: 51.5% | 66.1% | 61.6% | 67.3% | 48.5% | 78.6% | -3.6% | 824 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:07 PM |\n| #8 | moonshotai/kimi-k2.5High-confidence avg: 42.8% | 64.4% | 59.0% | 66.1% | 46.9% | 75.9% | -0.0% | 1024 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 06:05 PM |\n| #9 | z-ai/glm-5.1High-confidence avg: 44.4% | 63.8% | 59.0% | 62.7% | 44.3% | 77.9% | +2.5% | 1114 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 12:05 PM |\n| #10 | deepseek/deepseek-v4-flashHigh-confidence avg: 48.0% | 63.7% | 58.7% | 64.9% | 43.3% | 78.5% | -0.5% | 834 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:05 PM |\n| #11 | google/gemini-3-flash-previewHigh-confidence avg: 42.2% | 62.5% | 58.1% | 55.9% | 43.0% | 78.1% | +8.6% | 1015 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 12:03 PM |\n| #12 | z-ai/glm-5High-confidence avg: 42.8% | 61.5% | 54.7% | 68.3% | 52.8% | 67.7% | +9.1% | 195 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | Apr 26, 06:05 AM |\n| #13 | deepseek/deepseek-v4-proHigh-confidence avg: 42.3% | 58.0% | 54.0% | 65.5% | 31.8% | 79.4% | +10.3% | 828 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:05 PM |", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-ai-model-benchmark-for-crypto-price-predictions", "canonical_source": "https://coinsignal.co/benchmark", "published_at": "2026-05-31 09:35:20+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-05-31 09:44:51.687901+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["machine-learning", "artificial-intelligence", "large-language-models", "ai-tools"], "entities": ["OpenAI", "GPT-5.4", "Minimax", "Minimax-m2.7", "Xiaomi", "Mimo-v2.5", "Moonshot AI", "Kimi K2.5"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-ai-model-benchmark-for-crypto-price-predictions", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-ai-model-benchmark-for-crypto-price-predictions.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-ai-model-benchmark-for-crypto-price-predictions.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-ai-model-benchmark-for-crypto-price-predictions.jsonld"}}