Getting your
Trinity Audioplayer ready...In the upcoming runoff races to replace disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell, one candidate has proven herself popular with voters while another has to make up ground if she wants to win — but has a far more robust financial backing to help her attempt it.
Having already voted in two separate primaries for Congressional District 14, voters will decide between State Sen. Aisha Wahab, who has taken the largest share of votes in both, and BART Board President Melissa Hernandez in two more showdowns over the coming months – a special election to temporarily fill Swalwell’s seat on Aug. 18 and the Nov. 3 general election to fill the full term starting next year.
Swalwell abandoned his seat earlier this year after dropping his gubernatorial campaign over sexual misconduct allegations made against him by multiple women.
While Wahab previously told this news organization she is confident she will come out on top, Hernandez has vowed that she will make it to Washington, D.C., where the victor will represent a district that covers parts of the East Bay and Tri-Valley, including cities such as Fremont, Hayward, Dublin and Livermore. Although Wahab has yet to hold a Congressional seat, political expert Dan Schnur said her prior experience as state senator gives her an edge.
“Wahab is obviously not the incumbent, but she might as well be,” said Schnur, a political strategist and lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley. “She might not hold this particular office, but she comes into the race with many of the advantages of traditional incumbency.”
Although results have not been finalized for either June primary, the latest returns show Wahab took nearly 43% of the vote in the special election and about 38% in the June 2 primary. Hernandez appears to have taken about 17% in both elections.
“For Hernandez, the challenge is convincing voters to switch to a lesser-known alternative. Incumbency can be a double-edged sword,” Schnur said. “Running as an outsider has certain benefits in this political climate. But running as an outsider with such a large and well-funded megaphone can be even more helpful.”
Schnur said Wahab’s advantages include her already established voter base, such as loyal labor groups and residents within her current Senate District 10, which covers parts of Alameda and Santa Clara counties. She also has the endorsement of the Democratic Party.
Hernandez, he said, has the advantage of significant financial backing from wealthy political action committees that have spent more than $1.6 million in independent expenditures in support of her campaign.
One of those groups is the Bold America PAC, a financial interest arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. It has spent over half a million dollars on ads favoring Hernandez.
Bold America spends millions to support Democratic candidates throughout the country, and like other super PACs, can independently spend unlimited amounts of money. Another super PAC backing Hernandez is Project 218. Based out of Washington, D.C., it reported spending $474,525 in political contributions on May 27.
Groups supporting Wahab are nowhere near as well funded and have spent far less, about $517,300.
“We’ll know if Wahab and her team are getting concerned about the challenge if they start attacking Hernandez’s funders,” Schnur said. “As long as they feel the seat is safe for them, there’s no need to engage their opponent at all. But if the campaign is a closer one, closer to Election Day, criticizing the source of Hernandez’s funding has the potential to win some of those disillusioned voters back.”
Schnur said Hernandez could find insight elsewhere to give her a boost.
“Hernandez and her advisors could look at Xavier Becerra’s campaign for governor for possible inspiration and guidance,” Schnur said. “Becerra was way behind in the polls and he used financial backing from the business community and other interests to win a place in the runoff and probably the governor’s office.”
Becerra surged to the front of the gubernatorial race this year after Swalwell’s fallout. Becerra will face Republican and former Fox News host Steve Hilton in the November runoff.
Danielle Cendejas, a political strategist with experience helping politicians with Bay Area races, told this news organization that both Wahab and Hernandez will have to sharpen their communication with voters through the next two elections.
Cendejas is a partner at the Strategy Group and has worked with several notable winning political campaigns, including San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie and Wahab’s first run for Senate against former Fremont Mayor Lily Mei in 2022.
She does not currently work with Wahab’s campaign.
“Both candidates are elected officials, both candidates have different profiles,” Cendejas said. “By the time Election Day rolls around, people are going to be headed back to school, so it’s a really tricky time to try to get people’s attention when folks feel like they just voted.”
Cendejas said Wahab needs to focus her time on getting out to voters in the district while the state Legislature is in recess between July and August.
“If you’re Wahab, this is really about making sure that folks who turned out for you in the primary stick with you and return their ballots for the runoff,” Cendejas said. “If you’re Hernandez, you’ve got to find out how to get the mass to get you to overcome a state senator.”
Hernandez needs to find a way to convince more voters that she could be the leader in D.C. they want, Cendejas said. Hernandez could rally support by appealing to firefighter and law enforcement groups that have endorsed her, and she could also benefit from more independent spending from wealthy backers, Cendejas said.
“The outside money that we’ve seen at the federal level changes these races so dynamically,” Cendejas said. “They can’t coordinate, but they can send signals back and forth through very public domains.”