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The PJM Logjam Breaks Open
The US grid is divided up in to several regions managed by a cohort of grid operators. The regional system was formalized in the late 1990’s to streamline coordination between power generation resources in different parts of the country. Some grid operators, like PJM, periodically call for new capacity proposals to secure new power sources to meet future demand.
PJM is short for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland, the territory it initially covered at launch. Over the years PJM has grown beyond those three states to encompass all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia, an area with a population of 67 million.
In recent years PJM has weathered a barrage of criticism for its dilly-dally pace of approving new power projects for grid connection. As described by a press statement on August 3, PJM now aims to speed up the application process by deploying the Tapestry AI-enabled tool developed by Google, among other steps it has taken.
Energy Storage And Renewables Go Mano-A-Mano With Natural Gas
The raw numbers look good for the combination of energy storage and renewable energy. After sorting through 811 proposals, PJM has winnowed the total down to 715 projects. Natural gas clocked in at 147 projects, but it was easily beaten by energy storage at 314, with solar turning in a respectable number of 117 projects.
The domestic wind industry also proved that it still has a beating heart despite a concerted effort by the Trump administration to cut it off at the knees. PJM lists wind at 61 projects, with solar-plus-storage hybrids contributing another 37 projects.
Bringing up the rear are nuclear at 24 and hydropower at 5, with the remaining projects piled into one “other” lump. “The ‘other’ category includes biomass, coal, fuel cell, fusion energy and methane,” PJM explains.
So much for coal.
Moving on to the breakdown by gigawatts of nameplate capacity, by that measure natural gas wins by a mile, accounting for almost half of the total. All together, the 715 projects add up to 201.5 gigawatts, broken down as follows:
Natural gas: 99.8 GW
Storage: 60.0 GW
Nuclear: 17.3 GW
Solar: 11.8 GW
Solar-plus-storage: 7.5 GW
Wind: 3.9 GW
Other: 1.1 GW’
Hydro: 0.07 GW
Let The Games Begin
Again, so much for coal, which Trump has tried — and clearly failed — to somehow “save.” For that matter, Trump’s much-hyped “American Energy Dominance” policy also embraces biomass, geothermal energy, and hydropower, none of which make any particular appearance in the 201.5-gigawatt tranche of projects to be assessed by PJM.
PJM emphasizes that the selection of the 715 proposals is just the first step towards approval, and that’s where the rubber hits the road. The potential for 201.5 new gigawatts is impressive, but PJM only foresees demand increasing by a fraction of that — 70 gigawatts — over the next 10 years, with growth primarily driven by data centers and other large load users. Something’s gotta give, and PJM hints that the quickest-to-build projects have an advantage.
“Demand growth is outpacing the addition of new supply, risking reliability and making the timely interconnection of new resources critical to keeping the lights on for 67 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia.” PJM emphasizes (emphasis added).
“The rigorous process that is now in place is designed to encourage projects that will get built,” adds PJM VP of Planning, Jason Connell for good measure.
“Based on historical performance, only a percentage of projects that apply for interconnection will sign interconnection agreements and become operational,” PJM adds yet again.
The Solar-Plus-Storage Advantage
Energy storage and solar have made a powerful showing on the nation’s grid in recent years, which is no surprise considering they are the most economical, and most accessible (and least polluting), domestic power generation resources available today. Once construction begins, a typical solar array can be up and running in 12-18 months.
Gas power plants, in contrast, have a much longer construction timeline of three years or more for a modern, combined cycle system. That’s assuming the developer can get their hands on the necessary gas turbines, which are in short supply globally. A backlog of five years is the current rule of thumb.
Nuclear power also fails to beat solar and storage on the timeline, and then there’s public opinion to consider. Despite a sharp partisan split over fossil fuels, and some alarming headlines about local opposition to new solar power plants, a recent study of 686 solar projects completed from 2022 to 2023 shows that only 19% involved a high level of conflict, with 56% falling into the “low” or “no” conflict definition.
If gas and nuclear stakeholders think they can do better, let them try. Trump is stacking the deck in favor of polluters, but local opposition to new development of any kind has been rising at a furious pace. In particular, the blistering anger over new data centers makes the solar battles of years past look like a middle school lunch food fight in comparison. Communities across the US are organizing against new data centers hand over fist. Red and blue voters alike have also organized against Trump’s ICE warehouse plan, giving them a taste of their power to reshape local elected offices. If anything, the past years’ battles over solar power plants have also provided local residents with the tools and experience to monkey-wrench other new power proposals.
As if on cue, PJM also notes that its previous attempts to wade through the backlog have been stymied. “PJM currently has 51 GW of generation with signed agreements, but many of these projects are either not being built at all or are being slowed by hurdles such as state permitting and supply chain backlogs,” PJM explains.
Hmmm, supply chain backlogs. Ya think? If the voting public wants more electricity, more quickly, more cleanly, and more economically, they already know what to do. Like they say, all politics is local…
Image: The sprawling PJM grid region is seeking more details on 715 new power plant proposals, with solar and energy storage leading by number though gas leads in nameplate capacity (courtesy of PJM).
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