cd /news/artificial-intelligence/limits-of-confidence-in-diffusion · home › topics › artificial-intelligence › article
[ARTICLE · art-144139] src=machinelearning.apple.com ↗ pub= topic=artificial-intelligence verified=true sentiment=· neutral

Limits of Confidence in Diffusion

Apple researchers Russ Webb, Amitis Shidani, Alice Bizeul and Dan Busbridge published an October 2026 paper showing that discrete diffusion samplers — including remasking and uniform-state samplers — only match the training distribution when the token positions written in a step are conditionally independent given already-fixed tokens, and that no product of per-position distributions can match a dependent group. On the synthetic task ScanAndAdd, whose joint distribution is known in closed form, the authors verified that every group of two or more undetermined positions written by a confidence ranking is dependent, and measured the generated distribution at 29× the sampling-noise floor in total variation while per-sample metrics read 1.0.

read2 min views1 publishedOct 2, 2026
Limits of Confidence in Diffusion
Image: Apple ML Research

content type paperpublished October 2026 Limits of Confidence in Diffusion

AuthorsRuss Webb, Amitis Shidani, Alice Bizeul, Dan Busbridge

Discrete diffusion, including remasking and uniform-state samplers, generate a sequence by writing multiple token positions per step, drawing each from a per-position distribution and choosing which positions to write from those same distributions. For domains of general interest (pixels, phonemes, or words) there are inherent dependencies between tokens. We show that a step matches the training distribution only when the positions it writes are conditionally independent given the tokens already fixed, that no product of per-position distributions can match a dependent group, and that per-position distributions do not determine whether a group is dependent: two joint distributions can have identical per-position marginals while differing in which combinations of values occur. On ScanAndAdd, a synthetic task whose joint distribution is available in closed form, we verify that every group of two or more undetermined positions a confidence ranking writes is dependent, and measure the generated distribution to be 29× the sampling-noise floor total variation while per-sample metrics are 1.0.

Unmasking On-Policy Distillation: Where It Helps, Where It Hurts, and Why

July 9, 2026research area Methods and Algorithms, research area Speech and Natural Language Processing

On-policy distillation offers dense, per-token supervision for training reasoning models; however, it remains unclear under which conditions this signal is beneficial and under which it is detrimental. Which teacher model should be used, and in the case of self-distillation, which specific context should serve as the supervisory signal? Does the optimal choice vary from one token to the next? At present, addressing these questions typically…

Position Prediction as an Effective Pre-training Strategy

July 11, 2022research area Methods and Algorithmsconference ICML

Transformers have gained increasing popularity in a wide range of applications, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), Computer Vision and Speech Recognition, because of their powerful representational capacity. However, harnessing this representational capacity effectively requires a large amount of data, strong regularization, or both, to mitigate overfitting. Recently, the power of the Transformer has been unlocked by self-supervised…

── more in #artificial-intelligence 4 stories · sorted by recency
── more on @russ webb 3 stories trending now
sponsored brought to you by zahid.host 4,200+ EU-deployed projects
reading about agents? ship yours in a single git push.

Run your AI side-project on zahid.host

EU-based hosting, git-push deploys, automatic HTTPS, no cold starts. Free tier with a custom domain — perfect for shipping the agent you just read about.

$git push zahid main
→ Live at https://your-agent.zahid.host ✓
Get free account → Pricing
from €0/mo · no card required
LIVE [news/limits-of-confidence…] indexed:0 read:2min 2026-10-02 · —