Some say, a is possible, it merely depends on political will. Others say, tech progress can never be stopped. Maybe the truth lies in the middle? Maybe we can 'catch all GPUs' (that is, effectively enforce a or other international agreement) as long as training run sizes are large enough? Maybe every government policy would therefore have a breakdown point, a number of FLOPs or H100-equivalents where the training run gets too small to enforce regulation?
In our new paper, How to Catch a GPU: A Taxonomy of Verification and Enforcement Mechanisms for International AI Agreements:
In addition, we investigate eight off switch/treaty verification proposals from the literature, and catalogue policies they propose. We think our tables with proposed policies, structured per sub-problem, are particularly useful for researchers:
In addition, we include a table with enforcement breakdown pionts per measure for the determining sub-problem detect hidden capacity:
And finally, we include a table in the appendix with proposed FLOP thresholds per off switch proposal:
We hope this work will be useful!
Full paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22619 Cite as (MLA): Koopmanschap, Raymond, and Otto Barten. "How to Catch a GPU: A Taxonomy of Verification and Enforcement Mechanisms for International AI Agreements."
EA Forum post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9yxcgyAmgFDyEFb2W/is-a--enforceable-new-paper-out