The investment bank raised its TSMC price target by 35%, projecting 30% revenue growth in 2026 driven by insatiable appetite for AI chips
Goldman Sachs just handed TSMC one of the most aggressive endorsements on Wall Street, hiking its price target by 35% and reiterating a “conviction buy” rating on the world’s most important chipmaker. The new target of NT$2,330, up from NT$1,720, reflects a simple thesis: AI demand isn’t slowing down, and TSMC is the bottleneck everyone has to pass through.
TSMC shares responded accordingly, surging as much as 6.9% intraday to reach record highs. The broader semiconductor sector caught a tailwind too.
The numbers behind the conviction #
Goldman’s analysts revised their revenue growth projections upward, now expecting TSMC to grow 30% in 2026 and 28% in 2027. Those figures replaced prior estimates of 22% for both years. Earnings estimates got a lift too, revised upward by 9% to 15%. The driving force behind all of this is capacity utilization at TSMC’s most advanced manufacturing nodes, specifically the 3nm and 5nm processes that power the AI chips everyone from Nvidia to Apple needs.
Those advanced nodes are expected to remain tight through 2027. To address this, TSMC is planning to deploy over $150 billion in capital expenditures between 2026 and 2028.
Why AI is rewriting TSMC’s growth story #
Every major AI model, every GPU cluster, every custom silicon design from hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft eventually lands on TSMC’s order books. The 3nm process, in particular, offers the kind of power efficiency and transistor density that AI workloads demand. TSMC is one of only two companies on Earth that can reliably deliver at that level, and its competitor, Samsung Foundry, has consistently lagged on yield rates.
The upgrade also arrives after a series of bullish forecasts throughout 2025, suggesting this isn’t a sudden change of heart but rather a progressive escalation of confidence.
What this means for investors #
The projected tight capacity through 2027 means sustained average selling prices and healthy margins for TSMC. Companies that need cutting-edge chips can’t just wait around for prices to drop.
The $150 billion capex plan introduces execution risk alongside opportunity. Building and ramping new fabrication facilities is one of the most complex engineering challenges in the world. Delays, yield issues, or a sudden demand pullback could all complicate the rosy picture Goldman is painting.
TSMC’s concentration in Taiwan remains a structural vulnerability. The company’s expanding footprint in Arizona and Japan is a partial hedge, but the most advanced manufacturing still happens on the island.
For now, Goldman’s thesis is straightforward: AI demand is real, it’s growing, and TSMC is the single biggest beneficiary. Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our