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[ARTICLE · art-114037] src=arxiv.org ↗ pub= topic=artificial-intelligence verified=true sentiment=· neutral

Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect

A pre-registered audit of a frozen pedagogy judge, sealed before its 990 calls, found that difference-in-differences on a censored rating scale can manufacture an effect, with the registered primary endpoint null at +0.085 points (95% BCa [-0.167, +0.353], p = 0.684) and the one nominally significant interaction of +0.378 (p = 0.002) not identified as preference, as a construction with zero differential preference reproduces 79 to 85% of it from the severity shift and scale floor alone.

read2 min views1 publishedAug 28, 2026
Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect
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[Submitted on 27 Aug 2026]


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Abstract:Audits of LLM judges certify a bias by contrasting matched conditions, and the strongest designs difference twice: a within-item contrast between two candidate responses, differenced again across a manipulated attribute, read off a bounded rating scale. We show that this endpoint is not identified on the scale that reports it. Each term of the double difference is censored by its own share, so the observed statistic confounds differential preference with differential attenuation: a severity shift common to both responses manufactures an interaction whenever the two censor it unequally, as unequal distances from the bounds make them, exactly where good stimuli place them. We exhibit the failure inside a pre-registered audit of a frozen pedagogy judge, sealed before the first of its 990 calls. The registered primary endpoint, the effect of a stated learner profile on the judge's scaffolding preference, is null: $+0.085$ points (95\% BCa $[-0.167, +0.353]$, $p = 0.684$). The audit's one nominally significant interaction, $+0.378$ ($p = 0.002$), is not identified as preference: a construction containing zero differential preference reproduces 79 to 85\% of it from the observed severity shift and the scale floor alone. We derive the mechanism in closed form and show that its contribution is measurable from an audit's own ratings.

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