Getting your
Trinity Audioplayer ready...Former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer led in early returns in the California governor’s race on election night, signaling a potential Democrat-on-Republican matchup in November if the trend holds.
The results, which were posted just after 8 p.m., reflect only a small segment of ballots across the state as mail-in ballots will continue trickling in for the next week, meaning the lead could change. Early voting data indicated that a larger percentage of Republicans had cast their ballots compared to Democrats who political experts said were holding onto their ballots to see who emerged at the top of the polls. Independent polls in the final weeks oscillated between Becerra, Hilton and Steyer in the top three places. Only the top two will advance to the November general election in which the Democratic candidate is favored, as the party’s voters outnumber those in the GOP nearly 2-to-1 in the state.
“Unless something really unexpected happens that makes the Democrat unelectable, which is hard to imagine what that would be, it will be a Democratic victory,” Menlo College Political Science Professor Melissa Michelson said of a potential Democrat-on-Republican matchup.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan conceded Tuesday night that he would not advance in the governor’s race.
Becerra’s meteoric rise in the race came in mid-April following former Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell’s exit and subsequent resignation from Congress amid sexual misconduct allegations, which he denied. Political experts have credited Becerra’s long career in public office as one of the reasons for his surge — from the state Assembly to Congress to California attorney general and finally a member of President Joe Biden’s cabinet — as the kind of experience voters are looking for during a tumultuous time in American politics.
British-born Hilton, who previously served as an adviser to former Prime Minister David Cameron, cemented his Republican frontrunner status in the race when he received the endorsement of President Donald Trump in April. He used the debates as an arena to attack Democrats, blaming them for the state’s problems and calling for an end of “one-party rule” in California.
A Republican has not been elected to a statewide office since 2006 when Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected after becoming the replacement governor in 2003 with the recall of Gov. Gray Davis.
Michelson said that Hilton’s appearance on the November ballot will be “reenergizing for the Republican Party” and could have down-ballot race implications.
“Even if Steve Hilton doesn’t win he might be able to help other Republicans win by getting Republicans excited to vote,” she said.
California’s jungle primary system sends the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, onto the general election.
Steyer trailed behind Hilton, while Mahan was in fifth place in early returns.
With Gov. Gavin Newsom termed out, this year’s governor’s race was one of the most wide-open contests the state has seen in years for its highest office. Democratic heavyweights like former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla, both of whom would have likely cleared the crowded field, opted not to run, leading to a situation where a frontrunner struggled to emerge until the final weeks.
Swalwell, whose antagonization of Trump on cable news shows raised his national profile, seemed to be consolidating support from state legislators and other major power brokers in Sacramento. Swalwell, who represented part of the East Bay, dropped out of the race and soon after resigned from Congress.
In multiple debates among the crowded field, political experts saw the Democratic candidates sort themselves into several lanes. Becerra was often referred to as the “status quo” candidate who would maintain Newsom’s current direction, while Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, former Controller Betty Yee and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond courted the progressive left. Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa were the most moderate Democrats in the race and would likely shift the state more toward the center.
Republicans Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco meanwhile argued Democrats haven’t delivered on housing, homelessness, affordability and other pocketbook issues and shouldn’t be trusted to continue running the state.
Public opinion polls conducted in recent months have shown that the cost of living and the housing crisis are among the top issues for voters in the state. Newsom’s successor will also have to contend with cuts to critical federal funding streams for food assistance and Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program for low-income and disabled individuals, as well as a homeowner insurance crisis triggered by the rise of destructive wildfires in recent years.
On housing, all the leading candidates vowed support for increasing supply, though they varied in their approaches. Among the Republicans, Hilton decried what he called the state’s war on popular single-family homes in favor of higher-density housing, while Bianco assailed the state’s thicket of regulations.
Among Democrats, Becerra talked about streamlining regulations and reducing fees that make projects financially infeasible, while Steyer talked about a state revolving loan fund to provide low-interest financing and investing in factory-built housing to speed construction.