Strong Q2 results and a sharply raised revenue outlook signal that AI-driven chip spending is nowhere near its peak
ASML just reported its second-quarter 2026 results, and the numbers suggest the semiconductor industry is spending at a pace that would make even the most optimistic analyst .
The Dutch lithography giant posted Q2 revenue of €9.33 billion, clearing analyst expectations of €8.80 billion by a comfortable margin. Net income came in at €2.92 billion, with a 54% gross margin attached. Then came the guidance revision that really got people’s attention.
A guidance raise that changes the conversation #
ASML lifted its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of €43-45 billion. The previous estimate sat at €36-40 billion. That is roughly a 16% increase, which, in the context of a company this size, is not a minor adjustment.
CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed to surging capacity expansion plans from ASML’s key customers, a list that reads like a who’s who of global chip manufacturing: TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Intel. All of them are accelerating, not pausing.
Capacity expansion locked in years ahead #
ASML plans to expand its EUV lithography capacity by 30% in both 2027 and 2028, using its 2026 production base of roughly 65 low-NA EUV systems as the starting point. Nearly all of that expanded capacity is already booked.
The High-NA EUV story adds another layer here. Intel plans to use ASML’s High-NA EUV tools for its Panther Lake chips, which marks the first time this next-generation technology will see actual production use rather than just lab demonstration.
China exposure and what it means for the stock #
ASML expects Chinese customers to account for roughly 20% of its 2026 sales revenue. That figure represents a decline as a percentage of the total compared to prior years, which is consistent with ongoing export restrictions tightening access to advanced tools. However, ASML noted that the absolute dollar volume from China is still rising, driven by domestic logic chip demand.
ASML’s equipment backlog and guidance revisions typically precede chip production capacity coming online by 12 to 24 months, which means the spending being confirmed now will show up as actual silicon output well into 2027 and 2028.
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