Anthropic and OpenAI are reportedly working closely with the Trump administration to finalize a federal government plan for AI model evaluations. This plan focuses on reviewing frontier AI models for cybersecurity and national-security risks prior to their public release, as part of a broader initiative directed by a recent executive order. The executive order mandates the creation of a classified benchmarking process and a framework that allows developers to grant the government access to advanced models up to 30 days before their release. Both companies have existing pre-release review agreements with the Commerce Department, which have been adjusted to align with the new AI Action Plan. This cooperation suggests a shift from informal consultations to a more structured evaluation process.
Key Takeaways #
- Markets suggest increased confidence in a federal AI review order by the July 31 deadline, consistent with Trump’s active involvement in finalizing the plan.
- The collaboration between Anthropic, OpenAI, and the Trump administration indicates progress toward a more formalized AI model-evaluation framework.
- Pricing appears consistent with scenarios where the government moves towards a structured evaluation process, enhancing the likelihood of a timely order.
What to Watch #
The next few days are critical as the July 31 deadline approaches. Watch for official announcements from the White House or related agencies that would confirm or refute the issuance of a federal review order. Additionally, any public statements from Anthropic or OpenAI regarding their role in the process could provide further indications of the administration’s progress. The market’s response to these developments will be telling in assessing the likelihood of meeting the deadline.
Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.