An Anthropic researcher just put the odds of AI killing all humans above 10% this decade, and Amazon has staked roughly $200 billion in annual capex on that very lab. What Andy Jassy told investors next will either reassure shareholders…
The company whose chips Amazon has bet roughly $200 billion in 2026 capex to serve just had one of its own staff publicly estimate the odds of human extinction from AI at more than one in ten this decade. On X, Anthropic researcher Evan Hubinger wrote that “we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans” and pegged the probability at “>10% within the next decade.” He also conceded Anthropic “do[es] not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and [is] not clearly on track to.”
That is the counterparty Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) CEO Andy Jassy has effectively welded AWS to. And based on his July 30 earnings call, he is doubling down.
Jassy on Anthropic: Multi-Gigawatt, Multi-Year, Fully Booked #
Jassy told analysts that “the two leading AI labs in the world, Anthropic and OpenAI,” have made “multi-year, multi-gigawatt commitments” to Amazon’s Trainium chips. Anthropic alone has committed to secure up to 5 GW of current and future Trainium generations, anchoring Project Rainier, which Amazon describes as the “world’s largest operational AI compute cluster with 500,000+ Trainium2 chips for Anthropic’s Claude training.”
The financial imprint is already enormous. Amazon’s stake in Anthropic generated a $53.4 billion one-time non-operating pre-tax gain in Q2 FY2026, lifting GAAP EPS to $5.75 against a $1.82 consensus. Comparable EPS came in at roughly $1.88 versus a $1.83 estimate. Prior-quarter Anthropic gains ran $16.8 billion in Q1 and $9.5 billion in Q3 2025.
AWS Is Booming Because of the Bet #
Jassy said AWS is “booming right now,” posting revenue growth of 36.7% year-over-year, its fastest growth in 18 quarters, on a $169 billion annualized run rate. Backlog stands at $496 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year. Amazon’s chips business and AI revenue each cleared a $25 billion run rate, and Jassy said “the lion’s share of capacity in 27… is largely reserved,” with “quite a bit of capacity that’s already been reserved for 28.”
Amazon Is Also Building Its Own Frontier Model #
Asked whether Amazon needs to compete with the very lab it funds, Jassy said: “We are pursuing our own frontier model.” His reasoning: “within the next few years, you’re going to have at least a half dozen models that are comparably good to each other. They’ll all be in bedrock, and one of them will be ours.”
Q2 revenue reached $200.61 billion, up 19.6% YoY, with operating income at $27.46 billion. Cash capex hit $53.1 billion in Q2 alone. Shares trade at $252.37, up 9.34% YTD but off 9.25% over the past month. Polymarket traders currently price 90.5% odds that Amazon’s 2026 capex tops $200 billion. The safety debate at Anthropic is now, mathematically, a shareholder issue.
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