Next Claude Opus #
median release
The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market release forecast (combined by/on markets)
Generated 2026-07-22 08:45 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes.
Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date
| Model or change | Provider | Date signal |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Mythos 5 access restored | Anthropic | Not available on this date |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? | Anthropic | Not available on this date |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? | Anthropic | Not available on this date |
median release
The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market release forecast (combined by/on markets)
Only 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.
Markets: [Deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110)
consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)
Only 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.
Markets: By-deadline market release forecast
Only 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.
Markets: By-deadline market release forecast
median release
The combined distribution reaches 86% by Aug 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market release forecast (combined by/on markets)
median release
The combined distribution reaches 80% by Sep 30, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market release forecast
median release
The combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market release forecast
median release
The combined distribution reaches 95% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market release forecast
median release
The combined distribution reaches 53% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market release forecast