{"slug": "ai-model-release-forecasts-from-prediction-markets", "title": "AI model release forecasts from prediction markets", "summary": "Prediction markets on Polymarket forecast a median release date for Anthropic's next Claude Opus model by Dec 31, 2026, with a 99% probability by that date. Google's next Gemini Pro model has a median release by Aug 31, 2026, reaching 86% probability, while OpenAI's GPT-6 shows a median release by Dec 31, 2026, with 88% probability. The forecasts, generated July 22, 2026, from daily Polymarket price history, indicate low near-term probabilities for several models, including only 1.2% for Claude Opus by July 31, 2026.", "body_md": "## Next Claude Opus\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232) · [Exact-date market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730)\n\nrelease forecast (combined by/on markets)\n\nGenerated 2026-07-22 08:45 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes.\n\nCircle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date\n\n| Model or change | Provider | Date signal |\n|---|---|---|\n| Claude Mythos 5 access restored | Anthropic | Not available on this date |\n| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? | Anthropic | Not available on this date |\n| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? | Anthropic | Not available on this date |\n|\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232) · [Exact-date market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730)\n\nrelease forecast (combined by/on markets)\n\nOnly 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026\n\nLater dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.\n\nMarkets: [Deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110)\n\nconsumer change forecast (multi-deadline)\n\nOnly 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026\n\nLater dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by)\n\nrelease forecast\n\nOnly 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026\n\nLater dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026)\n\nrelease forecast\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 86% by Aug 31, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt) · [Exact-date market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460)\n\nrelease forecast (combined by/on markets)\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 80% by Sep 30, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-mythos-class-model-released-by)\n\nrelease forecast\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by)\n\nrelease forecast\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 95% by Dec 31, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-released-byptptpt-20260701203831153)\n\nrelease forecast\n\nmedian release\n\nThe combined distribution reaches 53% by Dec 31, 2026.\n\nMarkets: [By-deadline market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-haiku-released-byptptpt-20260701205353326)\n\nrelease forecast", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-model-release-forecasts-from-prediction-markets", "canonical_source": "https://matthewlloyd.github.io/ai-model-release-timeline/", "published_at": "2026-07-22 08:57:23+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-22 09:22:59.260078+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-products", "ai-policy"], "entities": ["Polymarket", "Anthropic", "Google", "OpenAI", "Claude Opus", "Gemini Pro", "GPT-6"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-model-release-forecasts-from-prediction-markets", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-model-release-forecasts-from-prediction-markets.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-model-release-forecasts-from-prediction-markets.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/ai-model-release-forecasts-from-prediction-markets.jsonld"}}