The optimism surrounding artificial intelligence may not last, increasing the risks for a global economy already vulnerable due to energy supply shocks and strained public finances, the Bank for International Settlements said.
Up until early 2026, the global economy remained resilient due to AI-related investments and "surprisingly strong global trade," but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered an energy supply crisis that has posed a renewed threat to the global outlook, said the international organization that works with central banks to promote financial stability.
"Despite signs of easing geopolitical tensions and a significant drop in oil prices, the disruption's impact may linger, the Bank of International Settlements said in its annual economy report released on Sunday. "A key risk is that higher inflation could become ingrained if inflation expectations de-anchor."
BIS general manager Pablo Hernández de Cos said at a press conference ahead of the report's release that repairing the damaged facilities impacted by the Middle East conflict and normalizing shipping traffic will take time, which could complicate and delay the ramp-up of oil output.
"Meanwhile, the need to rebuild depleted oil reserves could keep demand and price pressures elevated, he said.
Global headline inflation picked up shortly after the Middle East conflict and prices of plastics and fertilizers, which are key materials, rose by 30 and 50 per cent respectively, the report said. Whether these price increases will broaden and persist, just like the period right after the pandemic, is a "central question," it said.
"Post-pandemic inflation surges are still fresh," the report said. "Given that it will take several quarters to purge the imbalances in oil physical markets, further volatility in energy prices could arise. In turn, inflation expectations could de-anchor more quickly than in the past."
In addition, the intense competition for market leadership in the field of AI may fuel over-investment, as seen in previous innovation waves, which increases the risk of a "sharp reversal if AI payoffs disappoint," the report said. "The current surge in capital expenditure could prove unsustainable if supply bottlenecks restrain production."
Hernández de Cos said that while AI represents the most transformative technological breakthrough of our generation, it also raises fundamental questions about the future of work and income distribution.
"Its impact on inflation is uncertain," he said. "Today, AI has provided an impetus to growth through both real and financial channels. The question is whether this can be sustained."