Oh I agree with all of that and more, the problem is the top saas vendors in recent years have really ratcheted up the pricing. When you are facing multi million dollar snow renewals all of a sudden eyes shift to the worse version of we-have-snow-at-home.
What I am watching transpire first hand in the big enterprise space is, you can take claude+codex+a couple engineers to do the custom thing, and the real big take away is, people are willing to trade worse software in terms of functionality and polish for something they feel personally tailored to their whims.
Even if net cost ends up being a wash at the end of the day (right now scales are tipped WAY in favor of ai authored and maintained codebases driven by direct chat input from business users) my guess is more ego driven executives will love to show off how much better their version of salesforce is.