18:37
2026-06-06
forum.effectivealtruism.org
ai-safety
When the downside is limited and the upside is not, variance is your friend. When the downside is possibly very negative, it is not.
When the downside of a donation is small and bounded but the upside is very high, variance becomes beneficial for donors, as only a few winners are needed for a great outcome. However, when the downsi…