Brier score

A new arXiv paper (arXiv:2609.28475v1) introduces ReliabilityRoute, a structural intervention that steers forecasting-agent behavior using reliability features including historical coverage, market-pr…

Forecast-Dojo, a replayable environment for benchmarking and training LLM forecasting agents, was introduced in arXiv paper 2609.28876v1, combining 1,568 Polymarket events split by time into training …