What Happened
Will anyone ultimately use** AI as intensively as software developers** do? That matters because coding is already a huge share of AI usage and revenue: roughly 80% of developers use AI coding tools, and coding may account for more than half of combined OpenAI and Anthropic ARR, by some estimates.
See the following figure to see AI's developer reliance. And note that it has finance in the wrong place, with the biggest banks, like Goldman and JPM, having more like 15% of employees in software development, making them even stronger examples than shown.
What It Means
Coding is unusually expansive.- A short prompt can trigger planning, code generation, testing, debugging, retries and repeated ingestion of a large codebase.
- Token use can explode relative to the size of the initial request.
source & further reading
paulkedrosky.com — original article