Why human behavior is not as unpredictable/random as assumed

A forecaster and investor who claims consistent success in predicting economic and geopolitical outcomes argues that human behavior is far more predictable than commonly assumed, citing a track record of accurate calls for 2025-2026. The predictions include no mass job loss from AI, no AI or stock market bubble, Bitcoin underperforming stocks, and continued U.S. economic growth despite tariffs and geopolitical tensions. The forecaster asserts that trends and motives are discernible to those astute enough to notice, contradicting the notion of randomness in human actions.

It’s commonly assumed that forecasting–especially as it pertains to economics, geopolitics, or finance–ranges from hard to impossible, owing to the claimed unpredictability of human behavior. You’ll often see books, articles, and TED talks by “experts” about how people act unpredictably or irrationally, so one may be inclined to think it’s hopeless trying to make predictions. I have never bought into this, and my own success at forecasting and applying it to investing, runs counter to this notion. Given the replication crisis, why should anyone trust these “pop psychologists” who insist it’s random, seriously? Their credibility is shot. Here is what I correctly predicted for 2025-2026 alone although some of these are redundant : -No mass job loss due to AI the vast majority of jobs, especially having to to with interacting with humans, are hard to automate -No AI bubble/collapse. Private valuations of leading AI companies keep rising AI bubble predictions have been flat wrong for the past 3 years -Strait of Hurmuz traffic doesn’t return to normal, Iran quagmire continues big egos have no reason to give up ground -Bitcoin massively underperforms stocks Bitcoin has crashed below $66k as of writing this as the S&P 500 & Nasdaq makes new highs -No tech/stock market bubble stock bubble predictions have been flat wrong for the past 3 years -Stocks keep going up despite tariffs or Iran the economic impact of these has proven minimal despite alarmist headlines -US economy keeps growing, no recession despite tariffs or Iran same as above -Tariffs do not cause meaningful inflation … -Tame inflation as measured by CPI despite oil price spike from Iran … -No federal Bitcoin purchases obvious due to bad press, fodder for media, conflicts of interest -No Bitcoin reserve same as above -No mention of Bitcoin by Trump on his social media platforms or speeches … -Success of my Bitcoin hedging method capital flowing out of crypto to AI and other superior assets -“Affordability” situation doesn’t get better and eclipsed by focus on foreign policy by Trump The POTUS has little power to change this, and is a low priority anyway due to Trump wanting to leave a mark on foreign policy for his legacy. Also, the GOP is generally not concerned with affordability as a precedent. -Trump ignores “Groypers” and other dissident fringes Tucker, Candace Owens in regard to policy This was so obvious. Richard Hanania has so far been wrong https://greyenlightenment.com/2025/09/02/the-groypers-have-no-relevance-in-u-s-politics/ . I was right so far . Trump has lashed out against these people. It’s unlikely Vance thinks highly of them too. Groypers are low status, unwilling/incapable of voting, and considered cringe by normies and reliable voters. Trump is attracted to power; being fringe axiomatically precludes this, hence why he cares much more about the approval of powerful “big tech” interests despite them being more woke, and why he quickly loses interests in his early fringe supporters e.g. Peter Thiel in 2017 . This is also why Fuentes attacking https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/nick-fuentes-tucker-carlson-feud-b2879166.html Tucker made no sense–They have a large overlap in followers and ideology. Reading motives is yet another example of human behavior being predictable, contrary to randomness. This is not to say all predictions have gone as well–but this was from not meeting high expectations–not from the predictions being overtly wrong. Meta, Microsoft, McDonald’s and Tesla stock hasn’t performed as well from 2025-2026 as I excepted. SVIX/SVXY didn’t pan out either, although the losses on those were small. However, thanks to shorting Bitcoin and other strategies, I have greatly outperformed the S&P 500 nevertheless. Back to the main topic, there are always clues or patterns to behavior that can be gleaned if you’re smart or astute enough to notice. Trends do continue a lot longer than often assumed. There is even a “meme” about it–the “nothing ever happens chud”. Acting on that meme has been very profitable as an investment strategy. Same for the “TACO” meme. The media and punditry proclaim “This time is it Trump has really outdone himself America is finished ,” and lo and behold, he chickens out. The meme is not to be taken literally that nothing happens. A lot has happened over the past decade, such as obviously AI. But it’s more like in spite of everything happening, the underlying trend quickly reasserts itself. We see this with endless unfounded or grandiose promises of AI destroying jobs, post scarcity, or devaluing college or other goalkeepers of society. Despite LLMs becoming much more powerful over the past 3 years, nothing even close to that has happened. Healthcare is still expensive. Elite colleges are still selective and important. The unemployment rate remains within its long-term historical average, around 4-5%. Dining out is still expensive, too. There are no AI-based solutions to food preparation, the DMV, or medical procedures. Advertising is a huge fixed cost immune to Ai, as there is no AI-based solution to create awareness about something. When Starbucks wants to promote its new Frappe or Marvel its new movie, it needs to buy ads. Ads are a huge part of the cost of a good that cannot be automated-away. I also apply a systems https://greyenlightenment.com/2025/12/11/systems-beat-ai-bitcoin-case-study/ – based https://greyenlightenment.com/2025/08/27/why-systems-beat-experience/ framework https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/02/24/efficient-markets-and-skill-part-2-reading-the-future-by-decoding-systems/ . Anyone can apply this. Scott Adams has made many videos about this. Observable phenomena can be broken into that which is deterministic or random. Knowing enough of the former means having what can be described as a lower-from of “ESP” to outsiders. The lottery for, example, is random, so there is no possibility of an edge or profit. Its expected value is negative by design. But human behavior and capital flows are much more deterministic, so it’s possible to profit by decoding the underlying system and acting on it. Capital flows move along a gradient to optimize their returns. People do not willingly invest in subpar assets. It’s helpful to take people at their word. When Scott Bessent said in August 2025 that there would be NO taxpayer-funded Bitcoin purchases, that was your sign to sell. Sometimes the answer is in plain sight and it’s a matter of paying attention, not having any special skill per se.