Why aren't we shipping faster now?

A UC Irvine software engineering seminar talk on October 30, 2026, titled "Why aren't we shipping faster now?", argues that AI coding tools have not translated into faster software delivery, citing a 2026 paper in submission by Cha, Badea, Baym, Bird, Butler, Murphy-Hill and Hadley, "The Activity-Outcome Gap: Why AI Does Not Solve Software Engineering," based on 30 interviews. The talk also cites NBER Working Paper 35275 by Demirer, Musolff and Yang, "Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools," and arXiv:2610.13668 on benchmarking code review agents for bug detection. The talk's premise contrasts with Jensen Huang's May 29, 2023, Computex keynote claim, reported by Reuters, that AI means everyone can now be a programmer.

Talk · UC Irvine software engineering seminar · October 30, 2026 Why aren’t we shipping faster now? AI, activity, and outcomes in software engineering 21 minutes, with captions. Also on YouTube https://youtu.be/0wumMeZsNsI . Slides - Handout why-arent-we-shipping-faster-now-handout.pdf 19 pages, 3.8 MB One page per picture. The version to read. - Full deck why-arent-we-shipping-faster-now.pdf 41 pages, 4.0 MB Every build step, as shown in the talk. Papers Cha, Badea, Baym, Bird, Butler, Murphy-Hill, Hadley. The Activity-Outcome Gap: Why AI Does Not Solve Software Engineering. In submission, 2026. The 30 interviews; a link will appear here when the paper is public. Demirer, Musolff, Yang. Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools. NBER Working Paper 35275, 2026. nber.org/papers/w35275 https://www.nber.org/papers/w35275 Choudhuri, Butler, Bird, Badea, Houck, Sarma. “To Boldly Go Where No One Has Gone Before”: What Has AI Let Developers Unlock? 2026. arXiv:2610.23708 https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23708 Jensen Huang, Computex keynote, Taipei, 29 May 2023, as reported by Reuters https://www.reuters.com/technology/ai-means-everyone-can-now-be-programmer-nvidia-chief-says-2023-05-29/ . Yang, He, Cheng, Butler, Murphy-Hill, Badea, Bird. When Should a Software Factory Be Lights-Off? Benchmarking Code Review Agents on Bug Detection. 2026. arXiv:2610.13668 https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13668 Choudhuri, Bird, Badea, Gerosa, Sarma. You Shall Not Pass Where and Why Developers Draw the Line on AI Autonomy. 2026. arXiv:2607.00533 https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.00533 Miller, Choudhuri, Ulloa, Haniyur, DeLine, Storey, Murphy-Hill, Bird, Butler. “Maybe We Need Some More Examples”: Individual and Team Drivers of Developer GenAI Tool Use. ICSE 2026. arXiv:2507.21280 https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21280