PHILADELPHIA – At Vanguard, we anticipate 3% U.S. gross domestic product growth in 2027, an estimate that is noticeably higher than other professional forecasts, implying continued strong support for risk assets.
Such growth will not represent an incremental improvement, but rather a fundamental shift in the economy’s growth trajectory. Following a data-rich study of current AI capabilities and how the technology compares to other game-changing technologies of the past, we foresee an economic sea change.
In fact, AI is already boosting economic activity, even if it may be another year or two before we know for sure whether it will be as transformative an economic force as the personal computer. For our forecast to prove true, AI will need to move past its current automation phase, where it simply replaces human tasks, through an augmentation phase, where it makes workers better at their jobs, and eventually enables products, services and industries that we have not yet envisioned. Today’s focus is on automation, but it is the realization of these last two phases that will determine whether AI ever becomes a general-purpose technology.