What Is Your P(doom)?

A 2023 survey of AI researchers found a mean estimated probability of 14.4% and a median of 5% that future AI advancements could cause human extinction or similarly severe and permanent disempowerment within 100 years, according to the P(doom) concept documented in the AI safety field. The term, shorthand for the probability of existentially catastrophic AI outcomes, gained prominence in 2023 after the release of GPT-4 as figures including Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio warned of AI risks. Among notable estimates, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei put P(doom) at 10-25%, US AI Safety Institute head of research Paul Christiano at 50%, Center for Applied Rationality founder Andrew Critch at 85%, and Andreessen Horowitz co-founder Marc Andreessen at 0%.

P doom In the AI safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI safety field, P doom is the probability of existentially catastrophic outcomes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global catastrophic risk so-called "doomsday scenarios" as a result of artificial intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial intelligence . \ 1\ cite note-:1-1 <sup \ 2\ cite note-2 </sup The exact outcomes in question differ from one prediction to another, but generally allude to the existential risk from artificial intelligence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential risk from artificial intelligence <sup \ 3\ cite note-:2-3 </sup Economic analyses show that even small existential risks due to AI would justify substantial investments in AI safety and alignment research. \ 4\ cite note-4 \ 5\ cite note-5 Originating as a shorthand for communication in the rationalist community https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalist community and among AI researchers, the term came to prominence in 2023 following the release of GPT-4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4 , as high-profile figures such as Geoffrey Hinton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey Hinton <sup \ 6\ cite note-6 </sup and Yoshua Bengio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoshua Bengio <sup \ 7\ cite note-7 </sup began to warn of the risks of AI.<sup \ 8\ cite note-:0-8 </sup In a 2023 survey, AI researchers were asked to estimate the probability that future AI advancements could lead to human extinction or similarly severe and permanent disempowerment within the next 100 years. The mean value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean value from the responses was 14.4%, with a median value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median of 5%. \ 9\ cite note-9 Notable P doom values edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=1 | Name | P doom | Notes | Ref. | |---|---|---|---| | Dario Amodei https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dario Amodei | 10-25% | CEO of Anthropic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic | <sup \ 10\ cite note-10 </sup | | Marc Andreessen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc Andreessen | 0% | Co-founder of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andreessen Horowitz | <sup \ 11\ cite note-11 </sup | | Sam Altman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam Altman | 0% | CEO of OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI | <sup \ 12\ cite note-12 </sup | | Yoshua Bengio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoshua Bengio | 20% <sup \ Note 1\ cite note-Note02-13 </sup | Computer scientist, director of the Mila <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mila research institute institute, and the Turing award winner | <sup \ 3\ cite note-:2-3 </sup | | Grady Booch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grady Booch | c. 0% <sup \ Note 2\ cite note-Note04-14 </sup | American software engineer | <sup \ 1\ cite note-:1-1 </sup | | Vitalik Buterin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitalik Buterin | 12% | Co-founder of Ethereum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum | <sup \ 13\ cite note-15 </sup | | Paul Christiano https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul Christiano | 50% | Head of research at the US AI Safety Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USAISI | <sup \ 14\ cite note-16 </sup | | Andrew Critch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center for Applied Rationality | 85% | Founder of the Center for Applied Rationality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center for Applied Rationality | <sup \ 15\ cite note-17 </sup | | Lex Fridman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lex Fridman | 10% | American computer scientist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer scientist and host of Lex Fridman Podcast | <sup \ 16\ cite note-18 </sup | | Demis Hassabis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis Hassabis | 0% | Co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isomorphic Labs and 2024 Nobel Prize laureate in Chemistry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of Nobel laureates in Chemistry | <sup \ 17\ cite note-19 </sup | | Dan Hendrycks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan Hendrycks | 80% <sup \ Note 3\ cite note-Note03-20 </sup | Director of Center for AI Safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center for AI Safety | <sup \ 1\ cite note-:1-1 </sup | | Geoffrey Hinton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey Hinton | | "Godfather of AI" and 2024 Nobel Prize laureate in Physics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of Nobel laureates in Physics | <sup \ 18\ cite note-21 </sup | | Holden Karnofsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holden Karnofsky | 50% | Executive Director of Open Philanthropy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open Philanthropy | <sup \ 19\ cite note-22 </sup | | Lina Khan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lina Khan | c. 15% | Former chair of the Federal Trade Commission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal Trade Commission | <sup \ 8\ cite note-:0-8 </sup | | Daniel Kokotajlo <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel Kokotajlo researcher | 70–80% | AI researcher and founder of AI Futures Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI Futures Project , formerly of OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI | <sup \ 20\ cite note-23 </sup | | Connor Leahy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connor Leahy | 90%+ | German-American AI researcher; cofounder of EleutherAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EleutherAI . | <sup \ 21\ cite note-24 </sup | | Yann LeCun https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yann LeCun | <0.01% <sup \ Note 4\ cite note-Note06-25 </sup | Previously chief AI Scientist at Meta https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta Platforms | <sup \ 22\ cite note-26 </sup | | Shane Legg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shane Legg | c. 5–50% | Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist of Google DeepMind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google DeepMind | <sup \ 23\ cite note-27 </sup | | Jan Leike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan Leike | 10–90% | AI alignment researcher at Anthropic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic , formerly of DeepMind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google DeepMind and OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI | <sup \ 1\ cite note-:1-1 </sup | | Benjamin Mann https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin Mann?action=edit&redlink=1 | 0–10% | Co-founder of Anthropic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic | <sup \ 24\ cite note-28 </sup | | Emad Mostaque https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad Mostaque | 50% | Co-founder of Stability AI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability AI | <sup \ 25\ cite note-29 </sup | | Zvi Mowshowitz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zvi Mowshowitz | 70% | Writer on artificial intelligence, director on the board of the Center for Applied Rationality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center for Applied Rationality , former competitive Magic: The Gathering https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic: The Gathering player | <sup \ 26\ cite note-30 </sup | | Elon Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon Musk | c. 10–30% | Businessman and CEO of X https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter under Elon Musk , Tesla https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla, Inc. , and SpaceX https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX | <sup \ 27\ cite note-31 </sup | | Casey Newton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey Newton | 5% | American technology journalist | <sup \ 1\ cite note-:1-1 </sup | | Toby Ord https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby Ord | 10% | Australian philosopher and author of The Precipice https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity | <sup \ 28\ cite note-32 </sup | | Emmett Shear https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmett Shear | 5–50% | Co-founder of Twitch <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitch service and former interim CEO of OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI | <sup \ 8\ cite note-:0-8 </sup | | Nate Silver https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate Silver | 5–10% | Statistician, founder of FiveThirtyEight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight | <sup \ 29\ cite note-33 </sup | | Max Tegmark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max Tegmark | 90% | Swedish-American physicist, machine learning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine learning researcher, and author, best known for theorising the mathematical universe hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical universe hypothesis and co-founding the Future of Life Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future of Life Institute . | <sup \ 30\ cite note-34 </sup | | Roman Yampolskiy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman Yampolskiy | 99.9%–99.999999% <sup \ Note 5\ cite note-Note05-35 </sup | Latvian computer scientist, formerly a research advisor of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine Intelligence Research Institute , and an AI safety fellow of the Foresight Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foresight Institute | <sup \ 31\ cite note-36 </sup <sup \ 32\ cite note-37 </sup | | Eliezer Yudkowsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliezer Yudkowsky | 95% | Founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine Intelligence Research Institute , author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies . | <sup \ 1\ cite note-:1-1 </sup | | David Krueger <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David Krueger professor | 75% | American machine learning professor and advocate for the reduction of risks related to artificial intelligence. | <sup \ 33\ cite note-38 </sup | | David Duvenaud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David Duvenaud | 85% | Canadian computer scientist specializing in probabilistic machine learning, generative AI, and AI safety. He is a CIFAR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR AI chair since 2021 and a Schwartz Reisman Chair in Technology and Society since 2024. | <sup \ 34\ cite note-39 </sup | | 15 <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15 software engineer | <1% <sup \ Note 6\ cite note-Note07-40 </sup | American computer scientist and software engineer, founder of 15.ai https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15.ai | <sup \ 35\ cite note-41 </sup <sup \ 36\ cite note-42 </sup | Criticism edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=2 There has been some debate about the usefulness of P doom as a term, in part due to the lack of clarity about whether or not a given prediction is conditional on the existence of artificial general intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial general intelligence , the time frame, and the precise meaning of "doom". \ 8\ cite note-:0-8 \ 37\ cite note-43 In popular culture edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=3 In 2024, Australian rock band King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard launched their new label, named p doom Records. \ 38\ cite note-44 See also edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=4 Notes edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=5 1. ↑ cite ref-Note02 13-0 "Professor Bengio shared his p doom , saying: "I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic." Professor Bengio arrived at the figure based on several inputs, including a 50 per cent probability that AI would reach human-level capabilities within a decade, and a greater than 50 per cent likelihood that AI or humans themselves would turn the technology against humanity at scale." 2. ↑ cite ref-Note04 14-0 Equivalent to "P all the oxygen in my room spontaneously moving to a corner thereby suffocating me ". 3. ↑ cite ref-Note03 20-0 Up from ~20% 2 years prior. 4. ↑ cite ref-Note06 25-0 "Less likely than an asteroid wiping us out". 5. ↑ cite ref-Note05 35-0 Within the next 100 years. 6. ↑ cite ref-Note07 40-0 Refers to “P humans are extinct by 2100 due to AI ”, factoring in expected human intervention. References edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=6 1. 1 cite ref-:1 1-0 2 cite ref-:1 1-1 3 cite ref-:1 1-2 4 cite ref-:1 1-3 5 cite ref-:1 1-4 6 cite ref-:1 1-5 Railey, Clint 2023-07-12 . "P doom is AI's latest apocalypse metric. Here's how to calculate your score" https://www.fastcompany.com/90994526/pdoom-explained-how-to-calculate-your-score-on-ai-apocalypse-metric . Fast Company . 2. ↑ cite ref-2 Thomas, Sean 2024-03-04 . "Are we ready for P doom ?" https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/are-we-ready-for-pdoom/ . The Spectator . Retrieved 2024-06-19. 3. 1 cite ref-:2 3-0 2 cite ref-:2 3-1 "It started as a dark in-joke. It could also be one of the most important questions facing humanity" https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-15/whats-your-pdoom-ai-researchers-worry-catastrophe/102591340 . ABC News . 2023-07-14. Retrieved 2024-06-18. 4. ↑ cite ref-4 Jones, Charles I. 2024 . "The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk" https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20230570 . American Economic Review: Insights . 6 4 : 575–590. doi <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doi identifier : 10.1257/aeri.20230570 https://doi.org/10.1257%2Faeri.20230570 . ISSN <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISSN identifier 2640-205X https://search.worldcat.org/issn/2640-205X . 5. ↑ cite ref-5 Growiec, Jakub; Prettner, Klaus 2026 . "The economics of p doom : Scenarios of existential risk and economic growth in the age of transformative AI" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999326002476 . Economic Modelling . 163 107718. doi <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doi identifier : 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107718 https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.econmod.2026.107718 . ISSN <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISSN identifier 0264-9993 https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0264-9993 . 6. ↑ cite ref-6 Metz, Cade 2023-05-01 . "'The Godfather of A.I.' Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead" https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/technology/ai-google-chatbot-engineer-quits-hinton.html . The New York Times . ISSN <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISSN identifier 0362-4331 https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0362-4331 . Retrieved 2024-06-19. 7. ↑ cite ref-7 "One of the "godfathers of AI" airs his concerns" https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/07/21/one-of-the-godfathers-of-ai-airs-his-concerns . The Economist . ISSN <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISSN identifier 0013-0613 https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0013-0613 . Retrieved 2024-06-19. 8. 1 cite ref-:0 8-0 2 cite ref-:0 8-1 3 cite ref-:0 8-2 4 cite ref-:0 8-3 Roose, Kevin 2023-12-06 . "Silicon Valley Confronts a Grim New A.I. Metric" https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html . The New York Times . ISSN <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISSN identifier 0362-4331 https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0362-4331 . Retrieved 2024-06-17. 9. ↑ cite ref-9 Piper, Kelsey 2024-01-10 . "Thousands of AI experts are torn about what they've created, new study finds" https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/10/24032987/ai-impacts-survey-artificial-intelligence-chatgpt-openai-existential-risk-superintelligence . Vox . Retrieved 2024-09-02. Citing: "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI \ AI Impacts Wiki\ " https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai timelines/predictions of human-level ai timelines/ai timeline surveys/2023 expert survey on progress in ai . wiki.aiimpacts.org . Retrieved 2024-09-02. 10. ↑ cite ref-10 Morrone, Megan. "Amodei on AI: "There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly"" https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent . Axios . Retrieved 19 September 2025. 11. ↑ cite ref-11 Marantz, Andrew 2024-03-11 . "Among the A.I. Doomsayers" https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/03/18/among-the-ai-doomsayers . The New Yorker . ISSN <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISSN identifier 0028-792X https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0028-792X . Retrieved 2024-06-19. 12. ↑ cite ref-12 "OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: AI Warfare, Freedom & Immortality | MD MEETS Episode 1" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rF0tQtDMwHM&t=1498 . YouTube . October 1, 2025. 13. ↑ cite ref-15 Shapira, Liron 2025-08-12 . "VITALIK vs. AI DOOMER — Will "d/acc" Protect Humanity from Superintelligent AI?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxlcQzvnmWI&t=555s . YouTube . Retrieved 2025-10-03. 14. ↑ cite ref-16 "ChatGPT creator says there's 50% chance AI ends in 'doom'" https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-openai-ai-apocalypse-warning-b2331369.html . The Independent . 2023-05-03. Retrieved 2024-06-19. 15. ↑ cite ref-17 Doom Debates 2024-11-15 . Andrew Critch vs. Liron Shapira: Will AI Extinction Be Fast Or Slow? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opIvVzJF8t0 . Retrieved 2025-05-31 – via YouTube. 16. ↑ cite ref-18 "Archives: sundar-pichai-transcript" <https://lexfridman.com/sundar-pichai-transcript chapter9 p doom :~:text=I%20would%20say%20my%20p doom %20is%20about%2010%25 . Lex Fridman . 2025-06-05. Retrieved 2025-06-06. 17. ↑ cite ref-19 "Demis Hassabis on Chatbots to AGI | EP 71" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwUARJeeplA&t=2330s . YouTube https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube . 23 February 2024. Retrieved 8 October 2024. 18. ↑ cite ref-21 METR Model Evaluation & Threat Research 2024-06-27 . Q&A with Geoffrey Hinton https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTF5Up1hMhw&t=2283s . Retrieved 2025-02-07 – via YouTube. 19. ↑ cite ref-22 Thomas, Sean 2024-03-04 . "Are we ready for P doom ?" https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/are-we-ready-for-pdoom/ . The Spectator . Retrieved 2025-05-31. 20. ↑ cite ref-23 Kokotajlo, Daniel April 3, 2025 . "2027 Intelligence Explosion Month-by-Month Model" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htOvH12T7mU . youtube.com . 21. ↑ cite ref-24 Future of Life Institute 2024-11-22 . Connor Leahy on Why Humanity Risks Extinction from AGI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUV5-SLdkuQ . Retrieved 2025-05-31 – via YouTube. 22. ↑ cite ref-26 Wayne Williams 2024-04-07 . "Top AI researcher says AI will end humanity and we should stop developing it now — but don't worry, Elon Musk disagrees" https://www.techradar.com/pro/top-ai-researcher-says-ai-will-end-humanity-and-we-should-stop-developing-it-now-but-dont-worry-elon-musk-disagrees . TechRadar . Retrieved 2024-06-19. 23. ↑ cite ref-27 "Q&A with Shane Legg on risks from AI" https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/No5JpRCHzBrWA4jmS/q-and-a-with-shane-legg-on-risks-from-ai . Less Wrong . 2011-05-17. Retrieved 2025-05-23. 24. ↑ cite ref-28 Lenny's Podcast 2025-07-20 . Anthropic co-founder: AGI predictions, leaving OpenAI, what keeps him up at night | Ben Mann https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWoyWNhx2XU . Retrieved 2025-07-22 – via YouTube. 25. ↑ cite ref-29 Mostaque, Emad @EMostaque 2024-12-04 . "My P doom is 50%" https://x.com/EMostaque/status/1864266899170767105 Tweet <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweet social media . Retrieved 2025-05-31 – via X formerly Twitter <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X formerly Twitter . 26. ↑ cite ref-30 "Zvi Mowshowitz on Longer Timelines, RL-induced Doom, and Why China is Refusing H20s" https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/zvi-mowshowitz-on-longer-timelines-rl-induced-doom-and-why-china-is-refusing-h20s/ . The Cognitive Revolution . September 6, 2025. 27. ↑ cite ref-31 Tangalakis-Lippert, Katherine. "Elon Musk says there could be a 20% chance AI destroys humanity — but we should do it anyway" https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-20-percent-chance-ai-destroys-humanity-2024-3 . Business Insider . Retrieved 2024-06-19. 28. ↑ cite ref-32 "Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century?" https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction/102942530 . ABC News . 2023-10-08. Retrieved 2024-09-01. 29. ↑ cite ref-33 "It's time to come to grips with AI" https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-to-come-to-grips-with-ai . Silver Bulletin . 2025-01-27. Retrieved 2025-02-03. 30. ↑ cite ref-34 Tegmark, Max 30 April 2025 . "My P doom Estimate" https://x.com/tegmark/status/1917580821101437280 . X formerly Twitter . Archived https://web.archive.org/web/20250502114739/https://x.com/tegmark/status/1917580821101437280 from the original on 2025-05-02. Retrieved 2025-05-31. 31. ↑ cite ref-36 Altchek, Ana. "Why this AI researcher thinks there's a 99.9% chance AI wipes us out" https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-researcher-roman-yampolskiy-lex-fridman-human-extinction-prediction-2024-6 . Business Insider . Retrieved 2024-06-18. 32. ↑ cite ref-37 Yampolskiy, Roman @romanyam 12 March 2024 . "I am at 99.999999% https://pauseai.info/pdoom" https://twitter.com/romanyam/status/1767575356155027503 Tweet <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweet social media – via X formerly Twitter <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X formerly Twitter . 33. ↑ cite ref-38 Krueger, David. ""AI Will Be The Last Mistake Humanity Ever Makes..." | David Krueger | 8:10" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyBw-dIcKW4 . The Smart Cookies Podcast . 34. ↑ cite ref-39 Liron, Shapira. "Top AI Professor Has 85% P Doom — David Duvenaud, Fmr. Anthropic Safety Team Lead" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb9w7lFIHRM . Doom Debates . 35. ↑ cite ref-41 @fifteenai 10 September 2026 . "For me, P humans are extinct by 2100 due to AI < 1% because I expect humanity will always find ways to intervene even as AI gets much more advanced" https://x.com/fifteenai/status/2098185941450211835 Tweet <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweet social media – via X formerly Twitter <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X formerly Twitter . 36. ↑ cite ref-42 @fifteenai 9 September 2026 . "<1% My P doom hasn't changed much. The Navier-Stokes proof is awesome but I don't really buy the doomsday "hype" surrounding it" https://x.com/fifteenai/status/2097836108054933797 Tweet <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweet social media – via X formerly Twitter <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X formerly Twitter . 37. ↑ cite ref-43 King, Isaac 2024-01-01 . "Stop talking about p doom " https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EwyviSHWrQcvicsry/stop-talking-about-p-doom . LessWrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LessWrong . 38. ↑ cite ref-44 "GUM & Ambrose Kenny-Smith are teaming up again for new collaborative album 'III Times'" https://diymag.com/news/gum-ambrose-kenny-smith-iii-times . DIY . 2024-05-07. Retrieved 2024-06-19. External links edit source </w/index.php?title=P doom &action=edit§ion=7