Western Digital FQ4: HAMR to Ramp in CY27; LTAs Need More Clarity

Western Digital’s report was not as strong as its peer, given Seagate’s HAMR products are ramping now whereas Western Digital will be ramping HAMR in CY27. All-in, Western Digital will trail Seagate by about a year. Also contributing to weak price action following the earnings report last week was the lack of clarity regarding the long-term agreements. There were at least three clear attempts by analysts to get visibility on pricing terms, yet management did not provide enough specifics to assign a premium valuation (detailed below). Regardless of any one quarter, HDD stocks are bound to be winners once inference truly takes off. There is simply no way around the fact that agentic AI will drive explosive growth in data repositories and storage requirements. Below, we weigh the puts and takes of this earnings report, with the understanding this is a stock with a strong, long-term horizon.