Wave of Earnings Surprises Will Be Hard to Repeat, Says Goldman

Goldman Sachs warns that the wave of AI-fueled earnings surprises that boosted stocks last quarter will be hard to repeat, making a major rally from results alone unlikely. The bank's head of asset allocation research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, said the bar is high for this earnings season and that the big earnings surprise wave linked to AI capex is probably closer to the end.

Bloomberg -- The wave of AI-fueled earnings surprises that powered stocks in the last earning season will be tough to repeat, making it unlikely the results alone will spark a major rally, according to Christian Mueller-Glissmann. Most Read from Bloomberg - Greece Offers Bounty to Catch Ravenous Fish Lured by Warming Sea https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-05/greece-offers-bounty-to-catch-ravenous-fish-lured-by-warming-sea?utm campaign=bn&utm medium=distro&utm source=yahooUS - Chip Stocks Sink After Blistering Run as Oil Jumps: Markets Wrap https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?utm campaign=bn&utm medium=distro&utm source=yahooUS - Two Millennium Trading Pods Made About $3.7 Billion Last Month https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/two-millennium-trading-pods-made-about-3-7-billion-last-month?utm campaign=bn&utm medium=distro&utm source=yahooUS While companies are still likely to beat forecasts, "the bar is obviously high for this earnings season," the head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. told Bloomberg Television. He added that investors will focus on companies' outlook and executive commentary for signs that equities have room to grind higher. Goldman Sachs says consensus forecast is for S&P 500 companies to report 22% earnings growth in the second quarter, a similar figure to estimates compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. "Often when you are late cycle, earnings revisions keep going for quite a long time," Mueller-Glissmann said. "But this big, major earnings surprise wave linked to AI capex is probably closer to the end." The biggest US tech firms are planning to spend as much as $725 billion this year on data centers, specialized chips, and networking equipment. Mueller-Glissmann said that hyperscalers are still well-positioned as they own a lot of AI infrastructure. He added that hyperscalers should start concentrating on efficiencies and monetizing AI. "The overall structural trend around AI, in our view, is intact," Mueller-Glissmann said. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek - At 17, She Sued Meta and Google, and Won. Now She's Ready to Tell Her Story https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-07-03/google-and-meta-lost-a-landmark-trial-to-kaley-but-kept-her-as-a-user?utm campaign=bw&utm medium=distro&utm source=yahooUS - 'Southern Squeeze' Grips US Cities Once Known for Affordability https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-06-29/high-gas-prices-and-home-prices-make-atlanta-nashville-less-affordable?utm campaign=bw&utm medium=distro&utm source=yahooUS - Dan Carlin Believes That American History Rhymes, Not Repeats https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-06/dan-carlin-believes-that-american-history-rhymes-not-repeats?utm campaign=bw&utm medium=distro&utm source=yahooUS ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.