{"slug": "want-to-know-who-ll-win-the-world-cup-goldman-sachs-has-you-covered", "title": "Want to know who'll win the World Cup? Goldman Sachs has you covered.", "summary": "Goldman Sachs has released updated World Cup forecasts, predicting Spain as the favorite to win with a 20.4% chance, followed by France at 20% and Argentina at 18%. The model, based on historical performance and other factors, gives the US only a 1.2% chance of winning the tournament.", "body_md": "Forget psychic octopuses, pundits, and betting markets — the best guess about who'll win the [World Cup](https://www.businessinsider.com/world-cup-favorites-compared-to-big-business-trends-2026-6) might come from Wall Street.\n\n[Goldman Sachs](https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-wall-street-tech-selloff-ai-token-goldman-sachs-2026-6) has crunched the numbers for the tournament, but it's still a close call to determine who could win the most-viewed event in sports.\n\nSpain, France, and Argentina stand out above the rest, while the US' chance is only about one in 100.\n\nGoldman first published its World Cup forecasts before the tournament began, but analysts are updating them periodically, and on Thursday, shared a note after all 48 teams had played their first game of the tournament, giving a better idea of how the teams may fare on the big stage under pressure.\n\nThe Goldman analysts' model predicts how many goals each team would score against a particular opponent, then simulates the team's chances of progressing through each round.\n\nIt is largely based on historical performances, including the World Football Elo Ratings. This accounts for more variables than FIFA's official rankings, such as the margin of victory and the importance of the game.\n\nAnalysts also incorporated each team's goal-scoring talent, momentum, mentality, and geography — such as the country's altitude and average temperature compared to where their World Cup games are played.\n\n## More of Business Insider's World Cup coverage\n\nGoldman's model found that Spain, France, and Argentina each have a 31.5%-31.7% chance of reaching the World Cup final.\n\nBy comparison, fourth-ranked England has a 15% chance of getting to the final.\n\nWhen it comes to winning the whole thing, the model makes [Spain the favorite](https://www.businessinsider.com/prediction-markets-versus-traditional-sportsbooks-world-cup-impact-trend-analysis-2026-6) on 20.4%.\n\nFrance isn't far behind, on 20%. Argentina, which [won the last World Cup](https://www.businessinsider.com/fifa-world-cup-ticket-price-travel-cost-2026-6), has an 18% chance — slightly penalized by the statistical underperformance of reigning champions.\n\nAny other team winning would likely be considered a surprise. England has the next highest probability, at 7.1%.\n\nBut that figure is actually up 1.6 percentage points since the tournament started — the most of any team — after England beat Croatia 4-2 on Wednesday evening in Texas.\n\nSpain's chances of winning the World Cup only dipped by 0.2 percentage points after the reigning European champions were held to a shocking [goalless draw by Cape Verde](https://www.businessinsider.com/world-cup-linkedin-message-roberto-pico-lopes-cape-verde-spain-2026-6).\n\nMeanwhile, Goldman's model lowered France's chances by 0.3 after beating Senegal 3-1.\n\nPortugal, the seventh-likeliest winners led by 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, saw the biggest fall after playing their first game. After tying DR Congo 1-1, their chances dropped by 1 percentage point.\n\nThe US has the 11th-highest chance of winning the trophy, at only 1.2%. However, playing on their home turf with exciting, attacking-minded tactics, nothing can be ruled out.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/want-to-know-who-ll-win-the-world-cup-goldman-sachs-has-you-covered", "canonical_source": "https://www.businessinsider.com/world-cup-winner-goldman-sachs-prediction-spain-argentina-france-2026-6", "published_at": "2026-06-19 09:43:01+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-19 10:15:09.850565+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["machine-learning"], "entities": ["Goldman Sachs", "Spain", "France", "Argentina", "England", "Portugal", "US", "Cristiano Ronaldo"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/want-to-know-who-ll-win-the-world-cup-goldman-sachs-has-you-covered", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/want-to-know-who-ll-win-the-world-cup-goldman-sachs-has-you-covered.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/want-to-know-who-ll-win-the-world-cup-goldman-sachs-has-you-covered.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/want-to-know-who-ll-win-the-world-cup-goldman-sachs-has-you-covered.jsonld"}}