Wall Street Says Nebius Group ARR Can 10X in 4 Years

Wolfe Research projects Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) can reach more than $41 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2030, nearly 10 times the $4.26 billion ARR modeled for Q3 2026, driven by contracted power growth to 5 gigawatts and customer prepayments. Nebius raised its year-end 2026 contracted-power target to 5 GW and plans to deploy over 1 GW annually from 2027, with Q2 2026 AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin at 50%.

The AI infrastructure boom is moving into a new phase. Demand for computing power is no longer the only constraint; access to electricity, data-center capacity, and financing are becoming just as important. Customers are committing billions of dollars years ahead of delivery, while scarce power supports pricing. For investors, contracted power is becoming a financial asset as much as an operating metric. Wolfe Research believes Nebius Group NASDAQ:NBIS https://247wallst.com/companies/nbis/ | NBIS Price Prediction https://247wallst.com/companies/nbis/price-prediction can exit 2030 with more than $41 billion of annual recurring revenue ARR — nearly 10 times the $4.26 billion ARR shown for the third quarter of 2026 in its model. The thesis is aggressive, but its building blocks are visible. Power Is Becoming Revenue Nebius just raised its year-end 2026 contracted-power target to 5 gigawatts, up from more than 4 GW. Management said it plans to deploy more than 1 GW annually https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/18/da-davidson-reverses-course-on-nebius-target-cut-in-just-1-week-what-is-going-on/ beginning in 2027, and Reuters reported that the company believes it can sell its 2027 capacity at current terms. The Wolfe model translates that power ramp into ARR growth: $6.3 billion in fiscal 2026, $13.9 billion in 2027, $22.8 billion in 2028, $31.8 billion in 2029, and $41.2 billion in 2030. That assumes Nebius can repeatedly convert electricity into revenue-producing capacity. Customers Are Helping Fund the Buildout Nebius’ Q2 2026 shareholder letter said annual contract value per megawatt had climbed above $20 million for Q2 deals and above $40 million for short-term Q3 capacity deals. Four deals averaged more than $1 billion each, while 50% to 60% of their capex was self-financed through customer prepayments. Nebius’ 2025 annual report provides an example. Microsoft ‘s NASDAQ:MSFT https://247wallst.com/companies/msft/ agreement can generate as much as $17.4 billion through 2031 and includes roughly $7 billion of upfront payments. Meta Platforms ‘ NASDAQ:META https://247wallst.com/companies/meta/ March agreement carried a potential contract value of about $27 billion https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/19/can-nebius-group-really-10x-by-2030-the-math-says-yes/ . That reduces Nebius’ financing burden while long-duration contracts provide revenue visibility. The Margin Test Still Matters Admittedly, contracted power is not completed infrastructure. Nebius spent about $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in Q2 alone, according to its shareholder letter, while 2026 revenue guidance remains $3 billion to $3.4 billion. The company also faces competition from Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA https://247wallst.com/companies/nvda/ -powered cloud providers such as CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV https://247wallst.com/companies/crwv/ . Nebius must turn scarce power into energized capacity https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/20/nebius-775-million-debt-deal-changes-everything-about-its-ai-growth-story/ quickly enough to preserve returns. Surprisingly, its Q2 AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%. That gives the model some credibility, but sustaining those economics while adding more than 1 GW annually will be the key test. Key Takeaway In short, Wolfe’s $41 billion ARR forecast is a high bar, but the math has a foundation. Nebius must convert 5 GW of contracted power into capacity, maintain pricing above $20 million per MW, and keep using customer prepayments to fund growth. For investors, Nebius is a high-risk, high-upside AI infrastructure bet. The 10x ARR opportunity is worth watching, but the real signal will be whether margins hold as the gigawatts come online. Contact email protected for any questions or corrections.