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ViperQ: Order Flow Pattern Recognition via Auction Market Theory for Reinforcement Learning Trading

A reinforcement learning system called ViperQ, built on Auction Market Theory primitives, achieved +163.6% ROI on TSLA with a -27.5% max drawdown across 27,019 trades and +116.5% ROI on NVDA with a -47.8% max drawdown across 12,892 trades under zero leverage, according to an arXiv paper (2609.13825v1) evaluated on a held-out twelve-month partition of institutional tick data. ViperQ uses a 20-dimensional Z-normalised state vector of Volume Point of Control, Value Area position, Low Volume Node flags, Cumulative Volume Delta divergence, and tape-velocity signatures, with two Proximal Policy Optimisation agents trained on a prospect theory-grounded asymmetric reward function. The authors state the results establish Auction Market Theory features as a tractable structured input modality for sequential decision-making on financial time series.

by read1 min views1 publishedSep 15, 2026

arXiv:2609.13825v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning trading systems published in the academic literature overwhelmingly rely on price-aggregate state representations (OHLCV bars) or limit-order-book depth features, leaving microstructure pattern theories from the practitioner literature, namely Auction Market Theory and Market Profile, without a peer-reviewed computational instantiation. We present ViperQ, a reinforcement learning system whose state representation is built explicitly from Auction Market Theory primitives: Volume Point of Control, Value Area position, Low Volume Node flags, Cumulative Volume Delta divergence, and tape-velocity signatures, assembled into a 20-dimensional Z-normalised vector. Two Proximal Policy Optimisation agents are trained with a prospect theory-grounded asymmetric reward function that penalises losing holds at a magnitude consistent with Kahneman and Tversky's loss-aversion coefficient. Evaluated on a held-out twelve-month partition of institutional tick data the agents have never seen, ViperQ achieves +163.6% ROI on TSLA (-27.5% max drawdown, 27,019 trades) and +116.5% ROI on NVDA (-47.8% max drawdown, 12,892 trades) under zero leverage. The results establish Auction Market Theory features as a tractable structured input modality for sequential decision-making on financial time series and motivate further work on microstructure-aware policy learning.

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