TL;DR — Key Takeaways
- U.S. data center developers have requested more than 1,066 GW of power, but Wood Mackenzie estimates only about 28% of that demand will ultimately be supplied.
- Duplicate applications are inflating connection queues as developers seek power from multiple utilities for the same proposed projects.
- Utilities are tightening requirements with larger upfront payments, collateral and stricter project reviews to weed out speculative developments.
The rush to build AI infrastructure has generated more than 1,000 gigawatts of proposed data center power demand in the US, but most of that requested power is unlikely to be supplied, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
The energy consultancy estimates that utilities and grid operators will ultimately commit power to about 28% of the 1,066 gigawatts currently requested by data center developers. For perspective, one gigawatt can provide enough electricity to power about 750,000 homes.
The enormous gap between requested power and likely projects is creating a major planning problem for the US electrical system. Utilities must determine which proposed data centers are viable before committing billions of dollars to new generation and other infrastructure. Those investments can ultimately create costs for utility customers through higher rates, an issue that has created significant citizen pushback against data center construction.
Duplicate Applications
A key problem is the developer strategy of duplicate applications. As power resources have tightened, some developers submit the same proposed data center to multiple utilities, then plan to build wherever they can secure the most attractive terms and quickest connection. The practice leaves grid operators trying to determine how much demand actually exists.
The credibility of applications also varies significantly by region. Reports suggest that roughly half of the applications submitted to PJM Interconnection, which operates the largest US grid and serves 67 million people, represent credible projects. In Texas, known for its light regulatory environment, that figure is estimated to be far lower.
The numbers demonstrate the extraordinary scale of the requests. Wood Mackenzie’s 1,066-gigawatt total equals about 83% of US utility-scale generating capacity at the end of last year, based on Energy Information Administration data.
Utilities are responding by tightening their approval processes. Some now require large upfront payments and collateral before moving projects forward. The shift can disadvantage smaller developers that finance construction themselves before selling completed data centers to larger tech companies.
Exelon, a major utility owner serving customers in the eastern US, has also moved to clear speculative projects from its pipeline. The company cut its data center demand queue by nearly 40% in July, reducing it to approximately 11 gigawatts while giving priority to projects considered more likely to be built.
Texas has taken a particularly aggressive approach. Gov. Greg Abbott has recently ordered regulators to audit data centers seeking connections to the state’s primary grid. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is tracking about 474 gigawatts of connection requests, approximately 90% tied to data centers. The total is more than five times ERCOT’s record peak electricity demand.
The grid pressure was already slowing data center development before the latest wave of connection requests. Wood Mackenzie reported in March that developers added about 25 gigawatts of projects during the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half the amount added during the previous quarter.
Despite the challenges, the development pipeline remains enormous. At the end of 2025, proposed US data centers under development represented 241 gigawatts of electricity demand, nearly 160% above the level at the beginning of that year.