There has been a lot of talk about how AI is putting stress on broadband networks, and many analysts are claiming that we need faster broadband speeds to accommodate growing AI traffic. I was particularly struck by a comment from NTCA – the Rural Broadband Association in a filing at the FCC earlier this year in the FCC docket looking at USF reform. NTCA wrote, “The burgeoning growth of [artificial intelligence] demands modern networks with upload speeds much closer to symmetrical to support the applications and devices that it supports.” The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) told the FCC in 2025 that the 20 Mbps upstream standard is far too low and should be increased to 100 Mbps.
The FCC definition of broadband of 100/25 Mbps was adopted in March 2024. However, Commissioner Rosenworcel had been pushing for the increase to 100/20 Mbps for several years before that. It had been clear to everybody but the Ajit Pai FCC that the 25/3 Mbps definition of broadband was obsolete when the FCC’s mapping in 2022 showed that 90% of homes already had access to 100 Mbps download speed.
All of this leads me to ask if the 100/20 Mbps definition is already obsolete. Recent data from OpenVault says that 43% of U.S. households now subscribe to speeds faster than 500 Mbps download and 70% of homes subscribe to speeds of 200 Mbps or faster. It’s hard to look at these statistics and think that 100/20 Mbps should be the standard.
Unfortunately, the definition of broadband has political and financial overtones. A higher definition of broadband would declare that certain technologies are not really acceptable broadband. If we buy the arguments from NTCA and NRECA, then satellite broadband and FWA cellular would no longer be considered broadband. A huge percentage of cable company networks still have upload speeds far below 100 Mbps, even though there are numerous technology fixes for them to upgrade to faster, and even symmetrical speeds.
In a perfect world, the definition of broadband would be increased regularly to reflect that reality of the marketplace. But that’s not going to happen with this FCC, and in fact, in 2025, Commission Carr asked if the 100/20 Mbps definition is too high.
What is the right definition of broadband?. The easiest starting point for looking at download speeds is to look at the historical evolution of the definition of broadband from 4/1 Mbps, to 25/3 Mbps, to 100/20 Mbps. I’ve shown the following chart before that just trends forward that historic growth trend. If the definition of download speed continues on the same growth curve as from 1996 to 2022 (when the definition should have been 100 Mbps), the following definition of broadband is projected.This suggests the minimum definition of download broadband for 2027 would be 250 Mbps. That doesn’t seem at all out of line considering the OpenVault numbers that say that 70% of U.S. homes already subscribe to speeds faster than 200 Mbps.
Setting a definition for upload speeds is harder. The traditional definition of upload was low because there wasn’t really any use for it in most homes. But that has all changed in the last decade, particularly after the pandemic. People need upload bandwidth for a lot of uses. Most of us now work in the cloud all day. Video calls are the norm – I haven’t been on a voice conference call in ages. People game online and create content. We connect to portals for education that need significant and steady upload bandwidth.
The recent OpenVault report for the end of the second quarter of 2026 says that the average U.S. home uploaded 58 gigabytes of data per month, with upload usage growing at a rate of 20% per year. I always have to remind myself that the average means there are a lot of homes that upload a lot more than 58 gigabytes per month. That usage is two-and-a-half times the upload usage at the end of the pandemic and is way higher than usage a decade ago. I don’t know if the definition of upload should be 100 Mbps, as NRECA suggests, but I know it should be significantly higher than 20 Mbps, particularly if the AI folks are right.
In that same filing in the USF docket, NTCA also reminded the FCC that it is required to meet Section 254 of the Communications Act, which requires rural areas to have “reasonable comparability” to broadband service in urban areas. There are few urban and suburban areas where people can’t buy gigabit and faster download speeds, with an increasing percentage of homes that can buy gigabit upload. To be realistic, any definition of broadband that is set is strictly relevant only to rural areas, because urban speeds already far exceed any speed definition the FCC could ever consider.