# Tuesday’s Final Takeaways: SPCX Earnings, U.S. Eyes China’s AI & New Trump Tariffs > Source: > Published: 2026-07-21 20:49:28+00:00 # Tuesday’s Final Takeaways: SPCX Earnings, U.S. Eyes China’s AI & New Trump Tariffs SpaceX short interest has surged from 6% to 32% of the public float in just one month, representing $25 billion in bearish bets — even as Elon Musk warned short sellers "won't survive." Schwab Network # Tuesday’s Final Takeaways: SPCX Earnings, U.S. Eyes China’s AI & New Trump Tariffs SpaceX short interest has surged from 6% to 32% of the public float in just one month, representing $25 billion in bearish bets — even as Elon Musk warned short sellers "won't survive." TL;DR Marley Kayden wraps Tuesday's Market on Close with three major stories: SpaceX breaks a 7-day losing streak as it sets an August 4th earnings date, triggering a unique post-IPO lockup release that could free up 911.5 million shares [1] — Marley Kayden "SpaceX reports its first post-IPO earnings on August 4th — and the clock immediately starts on a massive insider unlock. Up to 911.5 millio…" 00:15 ; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant warns of potential AI sanctions on China [2] — Marley Kayden "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned the U.S. could sanction Chinese AI companies for improperly using American AI models. The warni…" 02:38 ; and new U.S. tariffs are imminent as temporary Section 122 duties expire Friday [3] — Marley Kayden "Temporary U.S. tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act expire at 12:01 a.m. Friday with no congressional action expected. New dutie…" 03:23 . Investors head into Wednesday watching Alphabet and Tesla earnings after the close. Marley Kayden discusses SpaceX's upcoming earnings announcement, the U.S. weighing new AI sanctions on China, and the Trump administration's evolving tariff strategy. - From the Schwab Network desk in Chicago, Marley Kayden opens Tuesday's Market on Close by previewing a session packed with market-moving headlines. She signals immediately that SpaceX, AI policy out of Washington, and upcoming Magnificent Seven earnings will dominate the final takeaways. The brief opening sets a brisk, information-dense tone for the four-minute episode. - SpaceX finally catches a bid after seven consecutive down sessions, powered by the announcement of its first post-IPO earnings report on August 4th. The date matters far beyond the headline numbers: it activates the company's unique, accelerated lockup expiration mechanism. Insiders will be permitted to sell 20% of their eligible locked-up shares — totaling up to 911.5 million shares — on August 6th, just the second full trading day after results drop. [1] — Marley Kayden "SpaceX reports its first post-IPO earnings on August 4th — and the clock immediately starts on a massive insider unlock. Up to 911.5 millio…" 00:15There's also an additional sweetener: another 10% of locked-up stock could be freed if SpaceX shares close at least 30% above the IPO price for five of the ten trading days leading into the report. The mechanics are unusually complex for a recently public company, and the sheer volume of potentially available supply sets the stage for dramatic post-earnings price action. - The numbers behind SpaceX's short-selling frenzy are staggering. According to S3 Advisors, approximately 260.6 million shares are now sold short — about 32% of the company's publicly tradable float, representing roughly $25 billion in notional bearish bets. [1] — Marley Kayden "Short interest in SpaceX has surged from roughly 6% of the public float just a month ago to 32% today, representing $25 billion in notional…" 01:25Just a month ago, that figure stood at around 40 million shares, or about 6% of float. The speed of the buildup is extraordinary by any measure. Despite CEO Elon Musk's publicly issued warning that short sellers 'won't survive,' the bearish positioning has only accelerated. Adding to the pressure, SpaceX shares have now fallen close to half from the company's intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16th, and nearly 40% from the all-time closing price of $211.39 on that same date — a brutal drawdown for a company that only recently went public. - Washington's focus shifted to artificial intelligence as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant put Chinese AI companies on notice: the U.S. is prepared to impose sanctions if officials determine that American AI models have been improperly appropriated. The statement signals the administration is moving beyond rhetorical concern about AI intellectual property toward concrete enforcement threats. [1] — Marley Kayden "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned the U.S. could sanction Chinese AI companies for improperly using American AI models. The warni…" 02:38The policy posture is directly informed by a bombshell letter Anthropic sent to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, in which the company alleged that Alibaba had carried out what it described as the largest known distillation attack against it to date — a technique where a competitor trains its model on the outputs of another's without consent. The combination of a senior Treasury warning and a named corporate victim marks a meaningful escalation in the U.S.-China AI rivalry. - The tariff calendar is about to flip. U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Grier told markets that new trade actions could be announced imminently as the administration finalises its strategy before temporary Section 122 tariffs under the 1974 Trade Act lapse at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Friday. [1] — Marley Kayden "Temporary U.S. tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act expire at 12:01 a.m. Friday with no congressional action expected. New dutie…" 03:23Congress has shown no appetite to intervene, meaning the expiration is effectively certain. The administration's next move appears to be a pivot to Section 301 — a separate provision of the same 1974 trade law that allows for retaliatory measures against alleged unfair foreign trade practices, in this case forced labor. Separately, President Trump has already imposed a 50% tariff on most Canadian goods, citing what he characterised as discriminatory trade barriers affecting American auto, dairy, and alcohol sectors — ratcheting up pressure on a long-standing trade relationship. - Lockup period - A contractual restriction preventing company insiders and early investors from selling shares for a set period after an IPO, typically 180 days; SpaceX's post-earnings lockup expiration is an accelerated, non-standard version. - Public float - The total number of a company's shares that are available for public trading, excluding shares held by insiders, major stakeholders, or under lockup. - Short interest - The total number of shares of a stock that have been sold short (borrowed and sold with the intention of buying back at a lower price) but not yet covered or closed. - Notional bearish bets - The total market value of all outstanding short positions in a stock, calculated by multiplying shares sold short by the current share price. - Distillation attack - A technique where one AI company trains its model by using the outputs of a competitor's more advanced AI model, effectively 'distilling' capabilities without permission — the method Anthropic alleged Alibaba used. - Section 122 - A provision of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 that grants the president temporary authority to impose import restrictions for balance-of-payments reasons, with a statutory time limit. - Section 301 - A provision of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 that allows the U.S. Trade Representative to investigate and retaliate against foreign trade practices deemed unfair, burdensome, or discriminatory — commonly used to impose tariffs. - GAAP EPS - Earnings Per Share calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, which includes all expenses and charges; used as the standard bottom-line measure for Tesla's earnings expectations in this episode. - CapEx - Capital expenditure — funds a company spends on acquiring or maintaining physical assets and major infrastructure; mentioned here in the context of Alphabet's AI spending plans. - Mag Seven - Informal shorthand for the seven largest U.S. technology companies by market capitalisation: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Chapter 1 · 00:00 ## Welcome & Show Open From the Schwab Network desk in Chicago, Marley Kayden opens Tuesday's Market on Close by previewing a session packed with market-moving headlines. She signals immediately that SpaceX, AI policy out of Washington, and upcoming Magnificent Seven earnings will dominate the final takeaways. The brief opening sets a brisk, information-dense tone for the four-minute episode. Chapter 2 · 00:15 ## SpaceX Earnings Date & Lockup Expiration Mechanics SpaceX finally catches a bid after seven consecutive down sessions, powered by the announcement of its first post-IPO earnings report on August 4th. The date matters far beyond the headline numbers: it activates the company's unique, accelerated lockup expiration mechanism. Insiders will be permitted to sell 20% of their eligible locked-up shares — totaling up to 911.5 million shares — on August 6th, just the second full trading day after results drop. [1] — Marley Kayden "SpaceX reports its first post-IPO earnings on August 4th — and the clock immediately starts on a massive insider unlock. Up to 911.5 millio…" 00:15 There's also an additional sweetener: another 10% of locked-up stock could be freed if SpaceX shares close at least 30% above the IPO price for five of the ten trading days leading into the report. The mechanics are unusually complex for a recently public company, and the sheer volume of potentially available supply sets the stage for dramatic post-earnings price action. [SpaceX Earnings Date & Lockup Unlock Mechanics](/bit/podbit/10076/) SpaceX reports its first post-IPO earnings on August 4th — and the clock immediately starts on a massive insider unlock. Up to 911.5 million shares, representing 20% of eligible locked-up stock, become sellable on August 6th, with a potential additional 10% freed if the stock holds 30% above IPO price. [SpaceX earnings date: August 4th](/bit/snapshot/10965/) SpaceX will report its first post-IPO earnings on August 4th, triggering its unique insider lockup expiration mechanism. [911.5 million shares eligible for sale](/bit/snapshot/10966/) Insiders can sell 20% of their eligible locked-up stock — totaling up to 911.5 million shares — on August 6th, the second full trading day post-earnings. [Additional 10% unlock at +30% above IPO](/bit/snapshot/10967/) An additional 10% of locked-up shares could be freed if SpaceX closes at least 30% above IPO price for 5 of the 10 trading days heading into the report. Chapter 3 · 01:25 ## SpaceX Short Squeeze Setup: $25 Billion in Bearish Bets The numbers behind SpaceX's short-selling frenzy are staggering. According to S3 Advisors, approximately 260.6 million shares are now sold short — about 32% of the company's publicly tradable float, representing roughly $25 billion in notional bearish bets. [1] — Marley Kayden "Short interest in SpaceX has surged from roughly 6% of the public float just a month ago to 32% today, representing $25 billion in notional…" 01:25 Just a month ago, that figure stood at around 40 million shares, or about 6% of float. The speed of the buildup is extraordinary by any measure. Despite CEO Elon Musk's publicly issued warning that short sellers 'won't survive,' the bearish positioning has only accelerated. Adding to the pressure, SpaceX shares have now fallen close to half from the company's intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16th, and nearly 40% from the all-time closing price of $211.39 on that same date — a brutal drawdown for a company that only recently went public. [SpaceX Short Interest Explodes to 32% of Float](/bit/podbit/10077/) Short interest in SpaceX has surged from roughly 6% of the public float just a month ago to 32% today, representing $25 billion in notional bearish bets. That's despite CEO Elon Musk warning short sellers they 'won't survive.' [SpaceX short interest at 32% of float](/bit/snapshot/10968/) According to S3 Advisors, about 260.6 million SpaceX shares are sold short, representing roughly 32% of the publicly tradable float. [$25 billion in bearish SpaceX bets](/bit/snapshot/10969/) The notional value of short bets against SpaceX has reached approximately $25 billion, up sharply from the prior month. [Short interest up from ~6% to ~32% in a month](/bit/snapshot/10970/) SpaceX short interest surged from an estimated 40 million shares (about 6% of float) to roughly 260.6 million shares (32%) in just one month. [SpaceX shed ~40% from all-time closing high](/bit/snapshot/10971/) As of Tuesday's close, SpaceX shares have fallen nearly 40% from their all-time closing price of $211.39 set on June 16th. Chapter 4 · 02:38 ## U.S. Weighs AI Sanctions on China; Anthropic's Distillation Attack Allegation Washington's focus shifted to artificial intelligence as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant put Chinese AI companies on notice: the U.S. is prepared to impose sanctions if officials determine that American AI models have been improperly appropriated. The statement signals the administration is moving beyond rhetorical concern about AI intellectual property toward concrete enforcement threats. [1] — Marley Kayden "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned the U.S. could sanction Chinese AI companies for improperly using American AI models. The warni…" 02:38 The policy posture is directly informed by a bombshell letter Anthropic sent to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, in which the company alleged that Alibaba had carried out what it described as the largest known distillation attack against it to date — a technique where a competitor trains its model on the outputs of another's without consent. The combination of a senior Treasury warning and a named corporate victim marks a meaningful escalation in the U.S.-China AI rivalry. [U.S. Eyes AI Sanctions on China Over Stolen Models](/bit/podbit/10078/) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned the U.S. could sanction Chinese AI companies for improperly using American AI models. The warning comes after Anthropic told the Senate that Alibaba executed what it called the largest known distillation attack against it to date. [Anthropic alleged largest-ever distillation attack by Alibaba](/bit/snapshot/10972/) Anthropic sent a letter to the U.S. Senate alleging Alibaba carried out the largest known distillation attack against it to date. Chapter 5 · 03:23 ## New Trump Tariff Strategy: Section 122 Expires, Section 301 Incoming The tariff calendar is about to flip. U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Grier told markets that new trade actions could be announced imminently as the administration finalises its strategy before temporary Section 122 tariffs under the 1974 Trade Act lapse at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Friday. [1] — Marley Kayden "Temporary U.S. tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act expire at 12:01 a.m. Friday with no congressional action expected. New dutie…" 03:23 Congress has shown no appetite to intervene, meaning the expiration is effectively certain. The administration's next move appears to be a pivot to Section 301 — a separate provision of the same 1974 trade law that allows for retaliatory measures against alleged unfair foreign trade practices, in this case forced labor. Separately, President Trump has already imposed a 50% tariff on most Canadian goods, citing what he characterised as discriminatory trade barriers affecting American auto, dairy, and alcohol sectors — ratcheting up pressure on a long-standing trade relationship. [Trump Tariff Reset: Section 122 Out, Section 301 In](/bit/podbit/10079/) Temporary U.S. tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act expire at 12:01 a.m. Friday with no congressional action expected. New duties will likely come under Section 301, framed around alleged forced labor — and a 50% tariff on most Canadian goods is already in place. [Section 122 tariffs expire Friday at 12:01 a.m. ET](/bit/snapshot/10973/) Temporary U.S. tariffs brought under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 will expire at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Friday unless Congress intervenes. [Trump imposed 50% tariff on most Canadian goods](/bit/snapshot/10974/) President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on most Canadian goods, citing discriminatory Canadian trade barriers on American auto, dairy, and alcohol industries. [Alphabet EPS expected at $2.87, revenue $117B](/bit/snapshot/10975/) Wall Street expects Alphabet to report EPS of approximately $2.87 on revenue of $117 billion, with growth of more than 20% on both top and bottom lines. [Google Cloud forecast to grow 60%+ year over year](/bit/snapshot/10976/) Google Cloud is forecast to grow by more than 60% year over year in Alphabet's upcoming earnings report. [Tesla revenue expected at $27.6B, EPS $0.36](/bit/snapshot/10977/) Wall Street expects Tesla to report revenue of $27.6 billion alongside GAAP EPS of $0.36 when it reports Wednesday after the close. 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