Models are getting better. That means that the most powerful models today are much more powerful than the most powerful models of a month ago, but it also means that today's fast models today are a lot more powerful than the fast models of a month ago.
Even if you pay close attention to new models, 1 it's easy to focus on power at the frontier and overlook the "93% as good and
I drafted the first 90% of this blog post last Friday morning and only finished it now. Everything above is significantly more true now than it was when I started writing it. So, this post is itself an example of LLM progress punishing (relatively, at least) normal-speed production.
This is a tricky subject to write about, just on an audience-relationship level. To a first approximation, there are two groups of readers: one group is paying little or no attention to the models powering the AI products they use, and the other is paying very close attention to them.↩
Again, by "professional-quality" I don't mean "as good as expert philosophers within their expertise," I mean "comparably useful to professionally trained philosophers outside their expertise but being careful and doing their homework."↩
That is, approximately two months old.↩