https://www.newyorker.com/tag/paul-manafort
US-Iran deal in 2026
Brad Parscale, former head of Donald Trump’s election campaign, has been reported to lead an Israel-funded digital influence operation aimed at gaining support from MAGA followers for the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. This operation, conducted through Parscale’s firm Clock Tower X LLC, seeks to shape public opinion in favor of the war by coordinating with MAGA influencers and leveraging digital platforms to embed pro-Israel narratives. The campaign’s efforts are part of a broader strategy to influence AI-generated content and integrate these narratives into conservative media channels.
Key Takeaways #
- The report appears to suggest that digital campaigns are being used to influence U.S. public opinion on the Iran conflict in a manner supportive of ongoing military actions.
- Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of a US-Iran deal in 2026, with odds moving from 29% to 25.5% YES over recent days.
- The involvement of digital influence operations may indicate increased political maneuvering, impacting perceptions around the potential for diplomatic resolutions.
What to Watch #
Observers should monitor any official responses from the U.S. and Iranian governments, which could further influence market dynamics. Key developments in the military conflict, such as new strikes or retaliatory actions, may provide additional indicators consistent with NO outcomes in related markets. Additionally, changes in public discourse or media coverage resulting from the digital campaign could indicate shifts in public sentiment, potentially impacting future negotiations.
Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our