# Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds

> Source: <https://the-decoder.com/top-ai-experts-badly-underestimated-how-fast-the-field-is-moving-study-finds/>
> Published: 2026-09-24 19:18:33+00:00

Leading AI experts have consistently underestimated how fast AI is advancing, according to the Forecasting Research Institute. AI reached gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast, and Anthropic's annualized revenue is about five times what experts predicted. But forecasts for real-world uses like self-driving cars paint a more mixed picture.

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