The value of AI is through the programmers

AI has delivered real productivity gains primarily in coding, enabling developers to build applications faster and cheaper, which then boosts user productivity. However, direct use of AI by non-programmers has shown limited gains, mainly in project planning, and the AI investment bubble may be overvalued.

7/14/2026 M. Washington Admin Opinion: The real value of AI is through the programmers... oh and the AI bubble is likely to crash I love AI. I use it every day. But I'm going to say something that would get me escorted out of most venture capital offices: the only place AI has truly delivered productivity is in creating tools, specifically, in coding. Before you fire up your keyboard to disagree, let's first agree on what productivity actually means. Because that word gets thrown around a lot, usually right before someone asks you for money. The Coconut Economy Imagine you're living on an island with a couple dozen other people. Everyone has needs: food, shelter, and , ironically , entertainment. even on a deserted island, humans will eventually demand content. So each person takes on the task of delivering the thing the others need. One person builds houses. Another raises cows. Someone, inevitably, becomes the island's stand-up comedian, and we wish them well. To keep track of who owes what, the islanders adopt a currency. Let's call it... coconuts. Now you have an economy. Congratulations , that's how the world works, that's how humans get along. Here's where it gets interesting. Say it costs five coconuts to have someone build you a house, and one tenth of a coconut to get a cow so you can eat. Cows are apparently in surplus on this island. Don't ask. Now, one day a person stands up and says: "Wait. I can build you a house forhalf a coconut." That person has achieved something real. That is a productivity gain . Maybe they're building the house cheaper. Maybe faster. Maybe both. Whatever the method, the same need is being met at a fraction of the cost , and now everyone on the island has 4.5 coconuts left over to spend on cows and comedy. That , and only that , is what we mean when we talk about meaningful productivity. Not vibes. Not press releases. Fewer coconuts, same house. Okay, Back to AI So with our coconut standard firmly in hand, let's ask the honest question: where has AI truly been productive? From my standpoint , and I say this as someone who genuinely loves this technology , the answer is: coding. AI lets us create applications faster, and with more features. And those applications are what deliver the productivity to everyone else. The chain looks like this: - AI helps a developer build an application faster and better. - That application helps its users get their jobs done. - The users are now more productive. In some cases, without AI-assisted coding, the application wouldn't exist at all . The coconut math simply wouldn't have worked , the cost to build it would have exceeded what anyone was willing to pay. In other cases the application would exist, but it wouldn't have the features people actually need to do their jobs, because those features would have been sitting in the backlog until the heat death of the universe. Either way, the productivity gain is real, and it flows through the tool . AI made the house cost half a coconut. That's the win. "But People Use AI Directly and Are More Productive " This is where the venture capitalists enter the chat. The pitch goes: forget developers , everyone is using AI directly now, and everyone is more productive. Knowledge workers Executives Your dentist And look , I'm sure somebody, somewhere, is living that dream. But from where I'm sitting, when I look for the direct-use productivity gains, here's the complete list of what I've found: - People can put together project plans faster and easier. That's it. That's the list. Now, faster project plans are... fine? But a project plan is a promise of productivity, not productivity itself. On our island, that's the equivalent of someone producing a beautifully formatted document titled "House Construction Roadmap: A Phased Approach" , and still charging you five coconuts for the house. Nobody's coconut bill went down. The Takeaway If you want to find where AI is genuinely earning its keep, don't look at the people talking to AI. Look at the people building with it. The real productivity purpose of AI is to create tools . AI makes coding faster, cheaper, and better; the applications we build are what make everyone else more productive. The value doesn't come from the chat window , it comes from what the chat window helps you ship. So, the next time someone tells you AI is making their whole organization more productive, ask them one simple question: "How many coconuts did the house cost?" If the answer is still five... it's not productivity. It's a demo.