# "The things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally": Arrowhead CEO Shams Jorjani on the games industry's rapid transformation > Source: > Published: 2026-08-27 11:10:08+00:00 # "The things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally": Arrowhead CEO Shams Jorjani on the games industry's rapid transformation The executive says that long development times, the rise of Asian developers, and the advent of new tech like AI make predicting the future hard, but indies are well positioned for success The CEO of Helldivers 2 maker Arrowhead Game Studios, Shams Jorjani, has said that the games industry is in a "transitional phase at the moment". Speaking to *GamesIndustry.biz* at Gamescom, the executive said the strategies that worked for developers and publishers through the 2010s are not "working anymore". "Sometimes there's been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," he says. "It's just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that's the reality." There are a few reasons for the shift in the games industry. In part, there's the continued rise of developers in the Asia-Pacific region; [this year's Gamescom Opening Night Live was a showcase of what studios from China and South Korea are capable of](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/the-highlights-of-gamescom-opening-night-live-2026). "There's always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani says. "That's been ongoing for the last 10 years, but now it's reached a point where it's game after game after game that's really making it." China, in particular, has reached something of a tipping point in the quality of games that its developers are producing. "It is definitely picking up for sure," Jorjani says. "I think that there's still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well. The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile-driven. That flavours the sensibilities, but it's going faster. I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." AI, in particular, has been a force applied to the games industry that means it is hard to know what the next five years are going to look like, let alone the next ten. The tech has introduced a level of unpredictability in the market, but Jorjani points out how differently it has been adopted in different parts of the world. He says there have been plenty of tech trends with inflated expectations down the years, like VR, but AI represents a real change. "For AI, I think it is more transformative in a completely different way. It's also interesting to see the difference between East and West in our adoption and approach to AI. In the West, we're asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds. Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever. There are parallels to those of us who have friends in the IT industry; everyone's shifted over to using AI completely and without any major moral kind of, not even qualms, but it's just because, at the end of the day, if you're making functional code, you're not making entertainment where you're trying to connect with other humans. "When you introduce AI to it, I understand that Western game developers have an existential crisis. I am an artist, and I'm also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it's just functional. There's a different attitude there. The West will be slower on the uptake, but the uptake will still happen." ### Long development times AI aside, the other difficulty in seeing what the future of the games industry holds – and how to plan for it – is the time it takes for developers to make their AAA blockbusters. These projects often take five or six years and require several teams working across numerous time zones to finish. This is partly why there has been a focus on existing properties and less investment in new IP, at least in the West. "There are multiple forces happening at the same time," Jorjani says. "Development cycles are still long. If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you're taking works. The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability. People know what they're getting, so you can offset that risk. The reason that becomes important then is also the other trend we're seeing: when you see so many more games being released all the time and you're looking at all these games, you get analysis paralysis. You might recognise Worms, for example; it's been around forever. You know these 10 other games announced two days ago are probably super cool; you might individually click through them to form an opinion. With Worms, you know what you're getting. "Will it be innovative? I don't really know, but it's brand recognition. We know this in player behaviour patterns. There's a stat that half of the games played on Steam are more than 18 months old. [[Steam Replay 2025 showed that 44% of user playtime was on titles between one and seven years old](https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/steam-replay-says-2025-releases-accounted-for-14-of-the-time-weve-collectively-spent-steamilygamening-this-year)] People scream for new games and IPs, but [they don't actually buy them](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/bain-co-research-shows-only-one-in-five-players-seek-out-new-titles). We tend to buy remakes. That's where we were at least very fortunate with Helldivers, in the sense that we were one of the lucky few who were able to get a breakthrough and establish ourselves. And that came through a certain bit of luck and the secret sauce that goes into making the game. It makes it recognisable, but also its own thing." Jorjani points to companies like Riot or Supercell who often will have numerous games in the works; one is a smash hit, so players forget about the other five titles they were creating. This, the Arrowhead boss says, is where indie developers have a real strategic advantage. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," Jorjani says. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you're on track, onto something, and you can iterate. That's the strength of software development. We see this in indie development because their cycles look very different and they share openly. They put up a GIF of their game, and if people respond to that, they know they're on the right track. [Tiny Glade](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2198150/Tiny_Glade/) was a big indie game that came out. And I remember seeing when they posted some of their early GIFs, and it just blew up week-over-week. But if you have a four-year cycle and your playbook is waiting until the game is finished, then doing a huge marketing push." Early validation is the name of the game, and this is something that Arrowhead is taking forward with its next project. The company has also been somewhat inspired by the approach that mobile developers have taken for years in showing concepts to consumers – often in the form of ads – and seeing which perform the best. "We're going to be putting it in the hands of players right away as soon as possible," he says. "Our philosophy has always been that we want to make games for a certain type of connoisseur. We don't want just any action player fan. We want a specific one. So we'll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players, and then we'll ask them what their favourite IPs or games are. There's a very specific subset of those that we're particularly interested in. If they're interested in aliens and they like Helldivers and they like the game they're playing with us, then we know that they should score the game higher than the control group that all like Helldivers, but aliens isn't their favourite. That will allow us to know that we're able to hit that specific group, and we should do this now, early into development rather than waiting two years after getting broad user tests." He concludes: "But it requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle." ## Read this next - [Xbox to focus on "efficiency and affordability alongside performance" for next-gen console amid rising hardware costs and innovations in AI](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/xbox-to-focus-on-efficiency-and-affordability-alongside-performance-for-next-gen-console-amid-rising-hardware-costs-and-innovations-in-ai) - [1047 Games ends active development on Empulse and Splitgate: Arena Reloaded, says it's moving away from live service shooters](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/1047-games-ends-active-development-on-empulse-and-splitgate-arena-reloaded-says-its-moving-away-from-live-service-shooters) - [IGDA Incubation SIG to unveil first global census of game incubators and accelerators at Gamescom](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/igda-incubation-sig-to-unveil-first-global-census-of-game-incubators-and-accelerators-at-gamescom)