Parenthood was once common; why have things changed so dramatically? #
Posted June 18, 2026 [ Reviewed by Michelle Quirk
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Key points
- Worries about the impact of global climate change significantly influences the desire to have children.
- Financial concerns and lack of childcare often bias women to delay the decision to have children.
- A smaller global population will alleviate some strain on global food systems and fragile environments.
Eighteen years ago, the average fertility rate in the United States was 2.08; today, according to statistics recently released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the average fertility rate is now about 1.5. The so-called “replacement rate,” where couples replace themselves in society, is 2.10, meaning that couples should have at least two children to maintain a stable population (the number reflects a correction for childhood mortality). Currently, all the states, with the exception of South Dakota, have below-replacement levels; states in the Northeast have exceptionally low fertility rates that range from 1.2 to 1.4. Fifty years ago, parenthood was almost an obligation. Things have changed dramatically.
Political Responses and Global Fertility Comparisons #
Politicians have noticed. Last year, the Trump administration advanced a few policies to encourage couples to have children, such as making the child tax credit permanent and a one-time financial baby bonus for children born through 2028. Conservative politicians have berated women who choose to remain childless. In 2021, then-Senator J. D. Vance complained that our country had too many “childless cat ladies.” However, remaining childless is not unique to American women. During the past half century, birth rates all over the world, including China, Japan, Europe, and the United States, have been declining dramatically. In contrast, some African countries have very high fertility rates among teenagers: Niger recently reported 6.6 births per woman, and Chad and Somalia both reported 6.0 births per woman.
A complete explanation is difficult to find. Some scientists have speculated about the effects of environmental toxins, such as the “forever chemicals” that can impair sperm count and motility. Consistent with this speculation, about 20 percent of Americans who want to become parents are facing infertility problems. Many recent polls have discovered that a variety of psychological factors are also involved.
A recent Pew Research Center poll found that about one-third of young people of child-bearing age (18-34 years) weren’t sure if they wanted children, and about 20 percent said that they had already decided that they don’t want any children. That follows a rise between 2018 and 2021 in the percentage of nonparents under 50 who said they were “not too likely” or “not likely at all” to have kids (16 percent vs 21 percent and 21 percent vs 23 percent, respectively). Financial realities also play a major role. It’s much harder to move out of their parent’s home and buy the first starter house due to high mortgage rates and the loss of many high-paying middle-class jobs (Li, 2024). Financial concerns often bias women to delay the decision to have children until they are financially secure—sometimes, until their biological clocks have progressed too far. The decline in fertility has occurred while the number of global maternal deaths has fortunately declined by 41 percent from 443,000 in 2000 to 260,000 in 2023.
Social and Environmental Influences on Family Size Decisions #
Today, in most developed countries, women have alternatives to being a mother and often feel the need to choose a lifestyle that better fits their interests and goals. Studies show that climate and political realities also play a major role in their decision. A meta-analysis (Dillarstone et al., 2023) found that worries about the impact of global climate change significantly influenced the desire to have children. Thirty-nine percent of young people globally reported feeling hesitant about having children because they are concerned about the long-term consequences of climate change on the future quality of life of their children. This contrasts with past generations, who felt that children were their contributions to the future success of society. These fears are realistic: Climatologists warn that our children will experience a very challenging environment within the next 50 to 75 years.
According to the Society of Human Resource Management’s 2025 statement, at least 60 percent of the companies within the United States offer no paid parental leave policy. In addition, daily childcare has become either expensive or not easily available. Subsequently, working mothers experience more stress and lower life and relationship satisfaction. I have three female scientific colleagues who spend about 90 percent of their take-home pay on childcare.
Being married with children is harder on women. Only about one-third of married mothers report having high relationship satisfaction, while about two-thirds of married women without children report having high relationship satisfaction. Do these women regret being childless when they are older, as some have warned? A recent study from Michigan State University found no evidence that older child-free adults experienced any greater levels of life regret than older adults who were parents. This finding is consistent with studies from other developed countries, where about 5 to 15 percent of parents say that they wish that they had decided to be child-free. The reasons for this level of regret were not delineated.
Impact of Reproductive Rights Changes on Pregnancy Decisions #
In the United States, the recent loss of reproductive rights following the Supreme Court’s ruling has further complicated a woman’s decision to become pregnant. Depending upon which state a woman lives in, accidental pregnancies have potentially lethal consequences. This is not a trivial matter, given that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about half of pregnancies in the United States are unplanned. Being pregnant has always carried a significant risk; today, those risks have been amplified by politicians. Some states do allow exceptions for rape and incest, which essentially means that politicians will only allow a woman to have control over her body after someone has violated her first.
Humans are now facing two existential threats to their future: the effects of global climate change on our ability to adapt and survive, and a significant decline in the number of humans available to populate the earth. Sustained below-replacement fertility will pose serious potential challenges for much of the world over the course of the century. However, a smaller global population in the future could alleviate some strain on global food systems and fragile environments, and reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2100.
References
Dillarstone H, et al. (2023) Climate change, mental health, and reproductive decision-making: A systematic review. PLoS Climate, Vol. 2, No. 11.
Li W, (2024) Do surging house prices discourage fertility? Global evidence, 1870–2012. Labour Economics Vol. 90.
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Vol. 403, Iss. 10440, May 2024, pp. 2057-2099, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6
Reich-Stiebert N, et al., (2023) Gendered Mental Labor: A systematic literature review on the cognitive dimension of unpaid work within the household and childcare. Sex Roles, Vol. 88, No. 11–12.
Neal JW, Neal ZP, (2023) Prevalence, age of decision, and interpersonal warmth judgements of childfree adults: Replication and extensions. PLoS ONE, Vol. 18, No. 4.