The Prediction Archive

The Prediction Archive, a public database that uses AI to track tens of thousands of world predictions over many decades and mark them to market, currently ranks economist Alex Tabarrok as the highest ranked individual predictor in the world, a position based on the Wilson score. Tabarrok noted that Bryan Caplan was more accurate but made fewer predictions, while Tyler Cowen made more predictions and was somewhat less accurate, and that the archive's AI sometimes marks contemporary events as predictions. The archive also covers Peter Zeihan, Scott Alexander and Warren Buffett.

The Prediction Archive The Prediction Archive https://predictionarchive.com/ is a public database of tens of thousands of world predictions. Using AI it tracks predictions over many decades and marks to market. I was surprised to discover that I am currently the highest ranked individual predictor in the world Huh, I would not have predicted that. Ranks are based on the Wilson score so you get credit not just for accurate predictions but for making enough predictions so that uncertainty about accuracy is reduced. Bryan Caplan was more accurate than I was but makes fewer predictions. Tyler made more many predictions than I did and was only somewhat less accurate. What the AI marks as predictions seem sometimes to be more about contemporary events, so take the numbers with a grain of salt. I expect to fall in ranking as the archive expands. Other people the archive covers include Peter Zeihan, Scott Alexander and Warren Buffett.